Is the ARRL ready for the Second Century? Part I

Next year, the ARRL will mark the 100th anniversary of its founding with a year long celebration including a Centennial National Convention in Hartford, where it all began.  We are proud of what has been accomplished in the first century of the ARRL’s existence.  What’s in store for the second?
— QST June 2013; ARRL CEO David Summer (K1ZZ)

QST magazine is the official publication of the ARRL.  The ARRL’s mission is: “To promote and advance the art, science and enjoyment of Amateur Radio.”

QST has a column, written by CEO David Summer (K1ZZ), called “It seems to Us”

The subject of the June 2013 QST “It Seems to Us” was titled: Building For Our Second Century.

In 2014 the ARRL will be 100 years old.

In the article, CEO Summer recounts some of the history of the ARRL from its beginning including ARRL’s evolving  role as the principle advocate for Amateur Radio to government.

Summer goes on to say that there are tens of thousands of people “…whose lives and careers have been enriched beyond measure” and that we need to recognize “a great debt to those who came before us, who did the difficult and sometimes thankless work of building and sustaining a national association to promote and advance the art, science, and enjoyment of Amateur Radio”

The ARRL Second Century Campaign

The rest of the article is about the ARRL Second Century Campaign.  The vision statement of the ARRL SCC  includes “securing significant financial resources to fund the ARRL’s commitment to its future objectives”.

The article ends by stating the fundraising goal of $10 million by December 31, 2014 and with this statement

None of us can know the specific challenges our association will face in the future or the opportunities that may arise for the ARRL to make Amateur Radio even more valuable as a community and national resource.  But we know this: Our predecessors made great sacrifices so we can enjoy te benefits of Amateur Radio.  We owe the same opportunities to the generations of radio amateurs that will follow us”.   http://www.arrl.org/arrl-second-century-campaign

Everyone who reads the QST article will pick out certain aspects based on their background, experience, and interests.

There are very few books written on the history of Amateur Radio and the ARRL.  In a sense, the history of Amateur Radio is the history of the ARRL.  An older book on the history of Amateur Radio and the ARRL ( I should just assume these are coextensive) is: Fifty Years of ARRL  published by the ARRL.  This book covers the beginnings of the ARRL to about 1950.

A more recent book is: The World of Ham Radio: 1901-1950 by Richard A Bartlett

Both these books cover the first fifty years of the ARRL.  But it is interesting to note that Bartlett’s book was published in 2007.

The missing 50 years of the ARRL (1950 – present)

The casual reader may ask the question, if Bartlett’s book was written in 2007 why did he stop writing about Amateur Radio and the ARRL as if some sort of catastrophe had occurred and both the ARRL and Amateur Radio are of little interest beyond1950?  Did Amateur Radio and the ARRL disappear in the 1950’s?

Bartlett has an answer

Why end this book as of the year 1950?  It is because the story of ham radio’s development essentially takes place in the first fifty years of the twentieth century.  Having been created, accepted, regulated, and achieved permanent status by 1950, the story after that becomes one primarily of repetition.  The one great exception is in the area of technology, and save for minimal descriptions necessary to the story, that has not been our concern.

The last page of the last chapter of Richard Bartlett’s book ends with this:

Time passes on, and the old guard gives way to the newcomers.  In November 1948 death came to Kenneth Bryant Warner, who for nearly thirty years was secretary and general manager of the ARRL.  “It was Maxim who conceived our League, it as Warner  who breathed into it life and energy and vitality, whose balanced judgement and clear vision ensured its growth and success,” reads his obituary. “With his passing we suffer the loss of a great leader, an untiring servant in the cause of amateur radio.”  p. 230 The World of Ham Radio 1901-1950

That’s the end of the story for Bartlett.  In 1950’s and beyond, the ARRL and Amateur Radio entered a state of repetition with no forward progress of the ARRL or Amateur Radio worthy of mention in any following chapters.

Poised for the Second Century?

Posted on the ARRL website regarding CEO David Summers K1ZZ findings (emphasis mine)

Mr. Sumner reported on his research into “state of the art” strategic planning by large membership associations. Perhaps because of the negative impact of the financial upheavals of 2008 and the revolution in electronic publishing, at this time there appears to be no consensus among associations as to the value of strategic planning or the best way for associations to go about it. The ARRL Board last updated the organization’s strategic plan in 2009 and normally would conduct an in-depth review three to five years later. The committee discussed the perceived shortcomings of past strategic planning efforts along with possible improvements. Without taking a formal decision the committee concluded that while strategic planning remains important to the ARRL, planning for a successful Centennial celebration in 2014 is the current priority. A fresh approach to strategic planning should be taken immediately afterward.

The Take (non-Profits)

… We are proud of what has been accomplished in the first century of the ARRL’s existence.  What’s in store for the second?  — ARRL CEO David Summer

Many of us get calls all the time asking for a monetary donation to a worthy cause.  Generally, I ask them what they are going to do with the money.  In most cases, the person doing the solicitation does not know much of anything about how the money will be invested or used by the organization.  These folks are generally just doing the solicitation and are not ready to answer this question.  Understood and accepted.

So the next step, if you want to find out how your money will be invested or used by the organization, is to go to the organization’s web site and check out their strategic plan, programs and initiatives, and the track record of results they have achieved to date.  Some organizations do this better than others.  Many organizations use the Balanced Scorecard along with all the details to show how all the parts of the organization fits together (strategy, operating model, alignment, metrics, measures, etc.)  to deliver its goals in service of the mission.

No matter what model of strategic planning you use, or how you show the tangible benefits, the existence of these assets gives potential donors (monetary, or time as a volunteer) some confidence that the money (or their time commitment)  will in fact be used effectively to further the mission of the organization to the stakeholders.

Creating a sense of confidence for donors

The (historical) absence of these assets is not helping the ARRL Second Century Campaign.  The history of ARRL’s strategic planning effort has been troubled for years.  Further adding questions about the  Second Century Campaign is the statement made by CEO David Summer K1ZZ on the ARRL web site quoted above.  And most recently in the June 2013 QST article (emphasis mine)

None of us can know the specific challenges our association will face in the future or the opportunities that may arise for the ARRL to make Amateur Radio even more valuable as a community and national resource.

This statement strikes me as profound

Is this to say that we “throw up our hands”, not have a plan, and live day-by-day just because we can not know, with (technical) certainty, what the future will hold? It is exactly this situation of imperfect information and an uncertain future where CEO’s and executive leadership can shine.  It is exactly this situation where CEO’s can differentiate themselves by being able to navigate these uncharted waters to identify opportunities which the organization can exploit to move it forward.

Some CEO’s see the same event either as threat or opportunity.  In the 1990’s, Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com saw the potential of the internet for selling books that no traditional bookseller could see – it was the beginning of the demise of the traditional bookseller.  In 1979 Steve Jobs saw at Xerox PARC the potential of a graphical user interface for personal computers that no Xerox executive could see.  David Sarnoff saw the potential for wireless “one-to-many broadcasting” and built the RCA corporation.  In this same vein, what in the current environment does the ARRL see as its opportunity?

Restoring confidence in the ARRL and Amateur Radio’s future

The ARRL could help its cause in its Second Century Campaign by having “in hand” a plan when asking for monetary donation.  Or better, to have a story to tell  to potential donors about what the ARRL has accomplished since “The First Fifty years” up to the present.  What is the compelling vision of the future for the ARRL and Amateur Radio – who the ARRL is and why they matter in the current context where always-on wireless global connectivity is available to nearly everyone on the planet.  What is the strength of ARRL executive management team and what is the record of their accomplishments?  What executive “bench strength” has the ARRL accumulated over the years?  Treat the ARRL Century Campaign as a VC (Venture Capital) due diligence test and you will probably know all the questions a major donor would ask.

Messaging – Perception is Reality

The combination of Richard A Bartlett’s sentiments quoted above about “50 years of ARRL repetition with no forward progress worthy of mention”, CEO David Summer’s statement that “there appears to be no consensus among associations as to the value of strategic planning or the best way for associations to go about it” and his most recent statement “None of us can know the specific challenges… or the opportunities that may arise” does not give one confidence that the ARRL knows its destiny or that our donation will be used effectively.”

In essence, the messaging and perception might be: we don’t see the value of having a forward-looking plan; don’t know how to create one – we are waiting on a consensus from others to tell us how to do that; and we are not sure of the challenges or opportunities that face our organization today or in the future.  Will this motivate any potential donor to open their wallet and give a large donation?  “Repetition of yesterday”  is the easy way out of this conundrum – but it won’t inspire anyone.

The role of the CEO and executive leadership

There are opportunities and challenge every day!  The role of the CEO and executive leadership is to diagnose the situation and trends – to “see around corners”.  It’s an exercise in CEO and executive leadership analysis, choices, and direction setting followed by execution – allocating resources, aligning people to measurable goals and outcomes, and holding them accountable.  The formula is pretty simple.  The devil is in the details and discipline of execution.  The ability to navigate and accomplish all of this, and to be transparent to stakeholders all along the way,  is a differentiator among CEO’s in any industry.  Even if an organization has a strategic plan, the majority fail in execution.

There is an old saying, “If you want to know the future, create it”.  We can learn this from anyone who taken advantage of disruption and changed an industry.  In a sense, uncertainty, disruption, imperfect knowledge is just what some CEO’s need to redefine and reposition their organization to lead in the future.  One only needs to look to Steve Jobs who, in 1996, snatched Apple out of near bankruptcy to make it the most valuable company in America in 2012.  In the process Apple redefined the personal computer industry, the music industry, and what we understand as a telephone.

Why can’t this apply to the ARRL?  Is it time for the ARRL to stop the “50 years of tiresome repetition” that inspire only a rare few of the up and coming generations?  Isn’t it time for the ARRL to re/position itself for the Second Century?

ARRL CEO David Summer titled his article “Building the Second Century“.  He thinks of this in terms of the primacy of a donor action of a financial contribution.  Where is the concomitant organizational action – long overdue?  Building denotes concept, design, architecture, and construction.  Show us the blueprint for the ARRL Cathedral of the Second Century.  And only then, will major donors fund your enterprise.

Read more

The work of one such organizational architect

American Radio Relay League – The Future Mission
December 12, 2003 by Richard Kiefer, K0DK

Amateur Radio: Projecting an image of ham radio to 7 million people in 22 minutes

The Opportunity

Episode 17 of Last Man Standing (wikipedia) depicted the use of Amateur Radio.  The ARRL gave the Amateur Radio community early notice that Amateur Radio would be depicted in a major prime time sitcom.  Many amateur radio folks were looking forward to watching this episode.

The episode aired in March, 2013.  For many hams, it was not what they expected.  One could ask, what sort of image did the script writers project of Amateur Radio and what do seven million people now think of Amateur Radio?  One could also ask, what is the power of the ARRL in influencing the public messaging and image of Amateur Radio?  The ARRL spends some portion of its budget on PR.  Did episode 17 of Last Man Standing enhance or detract from that messaging, “brand building”, and PR by the ARRL?

Impressions from the Amateur Radio community

You can look to the ARRL forums for some discussions.  Three months after airing, there are only 4 comments on the official ARRL forum.  Only three of those comments contained any real content and analysis.

Here they are:  ( http://www.arrl.org/forum/topics/view/780)

“ABC Comedy Last Man Standing Episode 17”  It was disappointing in how Ham Radio was depicted.  This looked more like “CB Radio” and advertising for the equipment and the illegal Linear Amplifier shown. The average TV fan would assume that anyone could use these expensive radios to chat without having to type to their friends! According to the show, some of the writers/producers are Ham Operators and they know the requirements to become licensed. Being a 40+ year ARRL Life member, 20 WPM Extra Class licensed Ham, makes me wonder about the shows story line and how far they are going with it. Lastly, while Ham Operators enjoy the hobby, they also volunteer their services in disasters and various community events. KB3SM: a proud Old Ham…

Another

Dear OM,

Our main page had a news story back on March 4th that announced the airing of this show. The spokesman of this show, who is an active Radio Amateur, warned us about the way Amateur radio was presented. From our news story, Mr. Amodeo says,:

“As a ham, I am very excited to be able to have an episode that presents our hobby in an upbeat and positive way,” Amodeo told the ARRL. “As a television producer, I am pleased to present a very funny episode for our more than 7 million viewers. This episode will feature more ham gear than seen in mainstream movies such as Frequency, Contact and Super 8 — all great films that had Amateur Radio in them. It’s worth noting that although hams will enjoy the episode, it was written with our 7 million non-ham viewers in mind. Please be prepared for some inconsistencies related to Amateur Radio, but enjoy the show nevertheless.”

I don’t watch this show, since I’m too busy to watch television, so I can’t comment on it. Wish we could come up with a show of our own, but we don’t have the resources.

73,

Bob Allison
WB1GCM

Another

As a retired geezer, I did watch the show. It was a 30-minute sitcom, what do you expect? Answer: not much when it comes to “important content” regarding amateur radio — or anything else.

I noticed the “illegal” use of the radio by an unlicensed and unsupervised person, of course. It was irresponsible to say the least for a ham to leave his rig “live” in a house full of teenagers.

But I marveled at how the writers could weave radio and international QSOs into the plot in a very quick and (to the uninformed) believable way. I bet there are a lot of young people who now have a different impression of ham radio as an alternative to mindless texting, Facebooking, etc. It was artfully done, I’d say.

Not that I’m likely to watch again. I’m the wrong demographic!

If we had a “show of our own”, I’m sure it would not get 7 million viewers.

73 Martin AA6E
ARRL Technical Advisor
ARRL Test Engineer

Storyline and writers depiction of Amateur Radio

We can look a little deeper into what was depicted in this episode.

Amateur Radio was a sub-plot in the episode titled “The Fight”.  The daughter, Mandy was getting poor grades in high school.  So, the parents decided that the reason for this was that she was spending too much time using her computer and smart phone.  To remedy the situation the parents decide to take away Mandy’s computer and phone until she pulls up her grades.

Of course, Mandy recites the mantra of her generation when her parents take away her devices, “This is how people of my generation communicate and exchange ideas”.  Without her devices, Mandy is having withdrawal symptoms.

Mandy wanders into the basement trying to find out where her parents hid her devices.  On the shelf she comes across an old typewriter.  She mistakes the typewriter for a laptop with a missing monitor.

Across the room is her fathers Amateur Radio station.  It’s fired up and running.  So, she walks over to it, sits down, picks up the microphone and stats talking.

All the comments above made by Hams is dead on.  What she did was illegal – you need a license to use a ham radio or be “third party traffic” with a licensed amateur radio operation present at the radio.  Leaving a ham radio on and unattended  like that was irresponsible.  And finally, no one just walks up to a radio with a linear amplifier and just starts talking without doing some technical fiddling.

“Who Are You People?”

When Mandy starts talking on the Amateur Radio, other Hams come back to her.  She asks, “Who are you people?”  One ham responds that they are amateur radio operators and that people all over the world can hear what you say.  In response, Mandy says, “Oh, it’s like twitter but more advanced since you don’t have to type”

Mandy tries to use what she knows about Twitter on Ham Radio.  So, after talking, she “hash tags” her last sentence and gives permission to “Re-Ham” (Re-Tweet) what she just said.  The ham folks reply with “LOL Mandy.  Did I get that right?

The writers have set up the dialog to get a laugh out of the generation gap between Mandy (a millennial) and the amateur radio operators (Baby Boomer generation and older).  Both generations try to talk to each other across the generation gap by trying to use idioms and phrases they think the other generation would understand.  Mandy tries to adapt her generations terms and concepts (hash tags, re/tweet) to the language of hams (“Re/Ham that’).

The personal stories of World War II

Mandy is trying to do a paper for school on World War II.  A couple of Ham’s respond.

Mandy tells the hams she is working on a paper for school on World War II.  She gets two responses.  The first ham (Walter) says he was on Omaha beach (D-day invasion).  Mandy misunderstands this as Walter trying to tell her about his vacation.  The second ham, a woman says, “I remember the war like it was yesterday.  Better than yesterday since I’m in early stages of dementia.”

Again, the script writers play on the generation gap between Mandy and the amateur radio operators go get a laugh.  Anyone of age who was present in World War II to have personal stories to tell is now in their late 70’s or 80’s.  The writers throw in the comment by the Ham that she is suffering from “early dementia” for good measure – it got a laugh.

Mandy does her paper and her parents compliment her on the all the personal stories of World War II she has cited.  She got those stories from the ham radio operators who she talked to.  They were there in World War II.

The Take

This episode of Last Man Standing was seen by an estimated 7 million people.  What impression did the mainstream masses come away with of Amateur Radio?  That Amateur Radio is a legacy technology with a bunch of old people?  Perhaps.

The 2009 ARRL has set this strategic goal

The ARRL will have a membership in 2020 with 60% of the members being under the age of 40.

I have not seen them report on this progress.  But engaging young people is essential to their continued existence given that the average age for hams is late 50’s and into the early 60’s and 70’s.  Young people are heavily under represented in the Amateur Radio community.

Is this a crazy idea?

While watching episode 17 of Last Man Standing on the internet I got treated to a whole bunch of commercials.

I saw ads for Google, Verizon, Internet Explorer, Land Rover, Nokia, and Bank of America.

I was treated to an interactive ad for Nokia smart phone video stabilization.

There were two ads for cat food and one ad for a carpet company (Luna).

What I did not see was an ad for the ARRL, or for any amateur radio equipment.  Was there no company or organization associated with Amateur Radio for which it would make sense to squeeze a 15 second spot for Amateur Radio between the two cat food commercials or the carpet commercial for this episode where Amateur Radio played a role?

Of course, any ham will tell you, that it’s crazy to advertise amateur radio to the mainstream.  The key is to ask them why.  Further, given the episodes depiction of Amateur Radio an ad would be embarrassing to whatever company or organization placed it.

The lasting impression to  7 million people

Those 7 million people who watched the episode of Last Man Standing now know the term “Amateur Radio”.  They saw some nice (expensive) equipment.  They got a few laughs at Amateur Radio’s expense built on the generation gap between Mandy and the Hams.  Now they will go on with their life and forget about amateur radio or know it as some sort of quirky legacy technology ( in the same scene where they saw a typewriter) before the advent of always-on global communications available to nearly everyone on the planet.

For Amateur Radio to survive it’s about influence and impact.  But I think that the portrayal of Amateur Radio on Last Man Standing to the mainstream masses has now relegated Amateur Radio only to a technical curiosity easily forgotten.

As a ham, I am very excited to be able to have an episode that presents our hobby in an upbeat and positive way,” Amodeo told the ARRL…  It’s worth noting that although hams will enjoy the episode, it was written with our 7 million non-ham viewers in mind. Please be prepared for some inconsistencies related to Amateur Radio, but enjoy the show nevertheless.

How many chances does the ARRL get to reach 7 million non-hams in the Last Man Standing demographic with a 22 minute story at no cost to them?  This high stakes portrayal of Amateur Radio to the mainstream also gives us some insight into the ARRL’s influence (influence to a team of creative sitcom script writers?) and ability to mange the public image of Amateur Radio.

Doing more; Doing more of the same; Doing just a little different

I always read Seth Godin’s blog.  They entries and short, direct, to the point, and always give me something to think about.

Here is a recent posting

“I’m making money, why do more?”

Because more than you need to makes it personal.
Because work that belongs to you, by choice, is the first step to making art.
Because the choice to do more brings passion to your life and it makes you more alive.
Because if you don’t, someone else will, and in an ever more competitive world, doing less means losing.
Because you care.
Because we’re watching.
Because you can.

There is a difference between doing more and doing different.

Sometimes, doing more of the same is your biggest liability – whether its your personal life, a for-profit company, a non-profit organization, or a government agency.

I always encounter people in organizations that are intent on “doing more”.  This is their biggest mistake.  They do more of same expecting to get promoted.  The only thing “doing more” (of the same) in non-strategic job roles is going to get them is “more of the same” since few managers will promote someone who excels at being  “a workhorse”.

Doing more (of the same) didn’t keep most traditional booksellers from going out of business.  Amazon did it different.  Different beat more of the same.

For non-profits, doing more of the same when the social, economic, technological, cultural and other external realities are shifting under your feet is going to send you on a trajectory of irrelevancy.  Traditional organizations like the Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, and the ARRL faces this challenge.  Do more of the same when the external context has radically changed –  or do different?

NASA essentially accomplished its biggest goal in 1969 by landing a man on the moon and returning safely back to earth.  What happens when you do it 6 more times?  Doing more of the same triggered some scrutiny by Congress with a report saying they needed a viable strategic plan, not to do more of the same, but to do more of something different – something that can engage the national vsion.  How about the US Post Office.  They would like to do more of the same (delivering physical postal mail) but seemingly most of the public doesn’t need more of the same.  Customers do different and the Post Office is now in decline because they are not doing different – what customers really need, want, and are willing to pay for.

The Take

Do more?  Ok.  But sometimes, doing more of the same is really doing less.

Doing a little different may grant you the privilege to do more of the same…  Then the chance to do different again…  and the process repeats.

Read more

Doing more of the same.  From one of the few books on the social history of amateur Radio “Why end this book as of the year 1950?  It is because the story of ham radio’s development essentially takes place in the first fifty years of the twentieth century.  Having been created, accepted, regulated, and achieved permanent status by 1950, the story after that becomes one primarily of repetition.”    Read the posting – ARRL: Does the ARRL need a Strategic Plan?

NASA – more of the same. From the office of the Inspector General ” These problems are not primarily of NASA’s doing, but the agency could craft a better response to the uncertainty, for example, by developing a strategic plan that includes clear priorities and a transparent budget allocation process. A better response would improve NASA’s ability to navigate future obstacles and uncertainties. An effective agency response is vital, because at a time when the strategic importance of space is rising and the capabilities of other spacefaring nations are increasing, U.S. leadership is faltering….”   NASA: What to do after mission accomplished

More of the same.. missing it all.  Of Telegraphs, Telephones, Radios, and Organizational Momentum

Why?  Group Think.  The C-word: Consensus

Doing a little different – Stupid Survives until smart succeeds

Trends for society through technology: What Jay-Z knows

Mary Meeker from venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins recently gave a presentation at Stanford University on the the state of the web.  The slide deck is filled with industry trends and statistical data to back it up.

So, I went through the deck and if you’re paying attention to the world we live in, nothing in the deck should be a surprise to you.  Every presentation of this kind is backward-looking.  That is, it describes trends that everyone can observe.  These sorts of presentations do not “look around corners” nor do they speculate on a discontinuous or non-linear future.  Of course, these latter events in history represent the significant opportunities for society and culture.

All that being said, there is interesting trend data and statistics in Mary Meeker’s deck.

The linear societal doom

It was going good until I looked at the last few slides in the deck.  One slide shows US spending on entitlements and debt as percent of GDP.  Another slide shows the distribution of taxes among entitlements, defense, interest and other.  The US spends 57% of taxes on entitlements.  A third slide shows that entitlement and interest expense will exceed GDP by 2025.

What Jay-Z knows

We were kids without fathers… so we found our fathers on wax and on the streets and in history.  We got to pick and choose the ancestors who would inspire the world we were going to make for ourselves.  – Jay-Z

What Jay-Z knows is about peer groups.  Pick your peer group, don’t let it fall to chance.

Everyone who walks on the face of the earth encounters peer groups.  Each peer group has it’s own culture and set of standards.  Whether you are going to be successful in life (a sort of difficult self-referential idea inside the group) depends on what peer group you hang with.

We could probably all agree that being part of the entitlement system which represents 57% of tax revenue spending is, in a sense, making one group of people pay for the existence of another group of people.  If this entitlement peer group continues to grow then a well-functioning economy is unsustainable.  When entitlements and debt exceed GDP (Gross Domestic Product) then that will be the end of the “late great USA”.

Pick who will inspire you…

Reading the slide deck its easy to see that the folks who consume these sorts of decks believe that “the future has unlimited possibilities”.  And, as Jay-Z says, “we pick and choose… [those] who would inspire the world we are going to make for ourselves.”

But what about the other peer group?  What about the people who consume 57% of the taxes that other people pay?

There are people everywhere where the temptation of having someone else pay your way is too strong to resist.  I encounter these people from time to time.  They have little regret or embarrassment for their situation.  They would rather spend their time “working the system” to try to get benefits than spend their time positioning themselves to be productive members of society.

The Take

Read the Jay-Z quote again and then page through the slide deck linked below.

Who will you pick to inspire the world that we collectively will make?  Are you the “Meekers’s” or a recipient of the 57% of tax revenue?

Mary Meeker 2012 Internet Trends Year-End Update – Business Insider

Read some related postings

The Future of Digital… is not in a rear-view mirror

How do organizations deal with changes in the external environment?

ARRL: Does the ARRL need a Strategic Plan?

NASA: What to do after “Mission Accomplished”

 

ARRL: Does the ARRL need a Strategic Plan?

Management is about generating yesterday’s results.  Leadership puts the leader on the line.  No manual, no rulebook, no uberleader to point the finger at when things go wrong. Leaders are vulnerable, not controlling, and they are taking us to a new place, not to the place of cheap, fast, compliant safety.

Strategy in the Corporate World

A few days ago, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg gave an interview to the UK Daily Mail.  In that interview, Zuckerberg talked about Facebook’s greatest challenge and missed opportunities.  “Facebook’s biggest challenge – and its greatest opportunity lies in mobile devices which is an area that the company did not pay much attention to until just last year.”

About a week ago I watched a Bloomberg video interview of Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer at the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland.  In that interview she talked about the future of Yahoo and the concept of the “interest graph” to compete in search against Google and Facebook

A few months ago Hewlett-Packard CEO Meg Whitman appeared at the quarterly earnings call to talk about the HP turnaround.  An extensive amount of material was presented detailing the turnaround and how all levels of the company will become aligned to the new strategy.

Everyone has one…

Needless to say, every public company has a strategy.  Strategy is driven by the recognition (diagnosis) of challenges and opportunities.  The nature of the challenges and opportunities sets the stage to formulate an  approach to best address the situation.  The approach translates into the development and execution of a coordinated set of actions across the enterprise along with metrics and measure to assess progress.  You can see this clearly played out in HP’s multi-year turnaround strategy made public at the recent quarterly earnings call.

In general, you can look in just about any quarterly report or annual report of a public company and find the strategy.  They differ in degree consistent with the diagnosis of the extent of the perceived challenge and opportunity in the external and competitive environment in which they operate.

Strategy in government agencies and charities

So why is it that NASA and the ARRL have such difficulty when it comes to formulating a strategy?

NASA

In late 2011, the Congress directed the NASA Office of Inspector General to commission a “comprehensive independent assessment of NASA’s strategic direction and agency management.”

In part, this is what it said:

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is at a transitional point in its history and is facing a set of circumstances that it has not faced in combination before…

Other than the long-range goal of sending humans to Mars, there is no strong, compelling national vision for the human spaceflight program, which is arguably the centerpiece of NASA’s spectrum of mission areas…

Although gaps in U.S. human spaceflight capability have existed in the past, several other factors, in combination, make this a unique period for NASA. These include a lack of consensus on the next steps in the development of human spaceflight, increasing financial pressures, an aging infrastructure, and the emergence of additional space-capable nations—some friendly, some potentially unfriendly…

These problems are not primarily of NASA’s doing, but the agency could craft a better response to the uncertainty, for example, by developing a strategic plan that includes clear priorities and a transparent budget allocation process. A better response would improve NASA’s ability to navigate future obstacles and uncertainties. An effective agency response is vital, because at a time when the strategic importance of space is rising and the capabilities of other spacefaring nations are increasing, U.S. leadership is faltering…

The ARRL (American Radio Relay League)

The ARRL as an organization is nearly 100 years old.  Below is their self-diagnosed position on a strategic plan

Posted on the ARRL web site regarding CEO David Summers K1ZZ findings (emphasis mine)

Mr. Sumner reported on his research into “state of the art” strategic planning by large membership associations. Perhaps because of the negative impact of the financial upheavals of 2008 and the revolution in electronic publishing, at this time there appears to be no consensus among associations as to the value of strategic planning or the best way for associations to go about it. The ARRL Board last updated the organization’s strategic plan in 2009 and normally would conduct an in-depth review three to five years later. The committee discussed the perceived shortcomings of past strategic planning efforts along with possible improvements. Without taking a formal decision the committee concluded that while strategic planning remains important to the ARRL, planning for a successful Centennial celebration in 2014 is the current priority. A fresh approach to strategic planning should be taken immediately afterward.

Challenge and Opportunity

What NASA and the ARRL have in common when it comes to the difficulty in strategic planning revolves around the assessment of challenge and opportunity.  This has many dimensions.  Partial considerations are suggested below.

In a sense, for NASA, it’s a case of “mission accomplished”.  It’s fair to say that NASA’s biggest challenge and accomplishment was putting a man on the moon and bringing him safely back to earth.  This was the challenge that President Kennedy set for NASA on May 25, 1961.  NASA accomplished this goal in July 1969 with Apollo 11.  NASA repeated this accomplishment five more times with Apollo 12,14,15, and 17.

NASA Mission accomplished – six times over.  Now what?

For the ARRL, in a sense, just as in the case of NASA, for the ARRL it’s also “mission accomplished”.  I will have to rely on Richard Bartlett’s assessment in his book The World of Ham Radio, 1901-1950: a social history.

In the epilogue of the book, published in 2007, Bartlett provides an answer for those who would ask him the obvious question: If you published the book in 2007 then why end the history of amateur radio and the history of the ARRL in 1950?  What happened in Amateur Radio and the ARRL over the past 57 years which is not accounted for in the book?

Why end this book as of the year 1950?  It is because the story of ham radio’s development essentially takes place in the first fifty years of the twentieth century.  Having been created, accepted, regulated, and achieved permanent status by 1950, the story after that becomes one primarily of repetition.  The one great exception is in the area of technology, and save for minimal descriptions necessary to the story, that has not been our concern.

ARRL Mission accomplished – back in 1950.  Now what?

NASA and the ARRL – Sources of identity

NASA and the ARRL have something else in common of a deeper nature.

The identities and goals of both organizations was set externally.

The Congress and the President of the United States created the national Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) on October 1, 1958.  Amateur Radio was first governed by the U.S. Department of Commerce (the U.S. Department of Commerce and Labor until March 1913), then by the Federal Radio Commission, and finally (in 1934) by the FCC.

The broad missions of each organization was set by other agencies

For NASA, the preamble to the act of congress was, “An Act to provide for research into the problems of flight within and outside the Earth’s atmosphere, and for other purposes.”   For Amateur Radio, the definition of the Amateur Radio Service was set in Part 97 Amateur Radio Service Subpart A–General Provisions §97.1 Basis and purpose.

If an organization gets its identity and goals outside of itself, then how much latitude does the organization have (or, think it has) when it senses that its basic purpose or goals need to evolve to stay relevant as the external environment changes?

Engineering and operations, not Strategy

The third aspect that the ARRL and NASA have in common is based on the combination of the two commonalities mentioned above.

Insofar as the identity of each organization was set externally outside the organization.  And, insofar as the goals of the organization were set externally outside the organization both organizations developed a culture of, what could be called, engineering and operations.  There was no need for either organization to develop the capability to re/define identify and or re/establish strategic goals.  The operating model of such an organization has a focus of delivering preestablished goals and sustaining ongoing operations.

In the corporate world this is never the case.  Corporations are constantly challenged to re/define their identity and re/position in the context of the ever-changing environment of challenges, opportunity, and competition.  The job of assessing and diagnosing the environment, framing an approach, and then aligning execution and resources is the job of the Chief Executive with oversight from the Board of Directors.  So, it’s no wonder that analysts, on a quarterly basis, will badger Zuckerberg, Mayer, Whitman, and every other CEO of a public company  into articulating their latest strategy.

The Take

What are the legitimate reasons for any organization to not have a strategic plan?

Well, probably the most obvious reason based on what is written above is that  an organization without a strategic plan does not recognize any challenge or opportunity in the context in which it operates.

If there is no new challenge and no new opportunity and you are satisfied with the organizations current performance then there is no need of any strategic plan.  One simply operates in a state of sustainability by repetition – for as long as you can maintain it within a budget, or for as long as you continue to not recognize a challenge or opportunity in the external environment,  or for as long as you can get away with it until stakeholders commission a “comprehensive assessment” (as in the case of Congress and NASA above) to find out why you don’t have a compelling vision of the future that can engage a national interest.

The last page on the last chapter of Richard Bartlett’s book ends with this:

Time passes on, and the old guard gives way to the newcomers.  In November 1948 death came to Kenneth Bryant Warner, who for nearly thirty years was secretary and general manager of the ARRL.  “It was Maxim who conceived our League, it as Warner  who breathed into it life and energy and vitality, whose balanced judgement and clear vision ensured its growth and success,” reads his obituary. “With his passing we suffer the loss of a great leader, an untiring servant in the cause of amateur radio.  p. 230 The World of Ham Radio 1901-1950

The way Bartlett ends his book begs the question as to why he thinks Amateur Radio and the ARRL entered a state of 57 years of unremarkable repetition.  Was it because every ounce of value was developed from Amateur Radio’s pre-defined identity and purpose?  Or, was it because in 1948 Amateur Radio and the ARRL ran out of great leaders like Bryant who “breathed into it life and energy and vitality… [ that] ensured its growth and success.” .

Bartlett does not give an answer – one way or the other.

Related Reading

NASA: What to do after Mission Accomplished
ARRL: Reaping the Whirlwind

The Boy Scouts recently celebrated its centennial
Read the intro to the Strategic Plan from Chief Executive Robert J. Mazzuca

As our first century of Scouting comes to a close, I am delighted to share with you our 2011–2015 National Council Strategic Plan. This document represents the confluence of our vital mission with a clear corporate direction and will be the cornerstone for our second century of Scouting. I am particularly proud of the grassroots support and feedback given by Scouters throughout the country that provided guidance as we developed objectives and goals that are in direct support of local councils. This investment made in setting our course may well be one of the most significant accomplishments in the history of our movement.

The National Council is committed to following this strategic direction with a very formal process; allocating manpower and financial resources appropriately, and setting course corrections as the environment dictates.

The stakes are simply too high to put forth anything but our best effort

And then read the 2011-2015 Strategic Plan

It’s amazing how many opportunities CEO’s get to differentiate themselves.

ARRL: Reaping the Whirlwind

“Why end this book as of the year 1950?  It is because the story of ham radio’s development essentially takes place in the first fifty years of the twentieth century.  Having been created, accepted, regulated, and achieved permanent status by 1950, the story after that becomes one primarily of repetition.  The one great exception is in the area of technology, and save for minimal descriptions necessary to the story, that has not been our concern.
The World of Ham Radio, 1901-1950: a social history by Richard Bartlett

It is rather interesting that a book published in 2007 ends with the above Epilogue.  The author is essentially saying that, for him, the evolution of ham radio ended in the 1950’s  and so that is where his book on Amateur Radio will cease to tell the story.  There is nothing else to report other than “repetition”.  It’s a sort of “Mission Accomplished” and the date in history is 1950.

Look in the index of the book and you will find that the ARRL (American Radio Relay League) has about the most page references of any entry.  The ARRL figures prominently in the story of Amateur Radio since its founding at the beginning of the 20th century up until where the author ends the story.

A couple of weeks ago there was a segment on 60 minutes on the newspaper industry.  The newspaper industry just like traditional book sellers, travel agents, video rental, and all the rest have been hit by a technological revolution.  This technological revolution can be seen either as death through  irrelevancy or as harbinger of opportunity – depending on your perspective.

Repetition

Newspapers are in trouble because they continue to do what they do, and what they always did – print newspapers no matter what the massive changes (opportunities) that were in front of them all along.  Traditional newspapers are in  trouble because they were in a state of repetition while the whole world changed, and continues to change, around them.  Printed newspaper are falling into a state of irrelevancy for an increasing large number of people.

In the case of the The Times-Picayune which was profiled on 60 Minutes the reason the paper gave for not changing was the traditional audience for the paper.  The idea being that they would be loyal to their current audience and the preferences this particular audience chooses to consume their news.  But, in the end, the current audience and their preferences could not sustain the ongoing full operation of The Times-Picayune.

The Take

There is an interesting parallel between the decision of the author of The World of Ham Radio published in 2007 to cut short the history of Ham Radio in 1950 and the newspaper industry.  Both the ARRL as a proxy for Amateur Radio and The Times-Picayune as proxy for newspapers in general are caught in decades long cycles of repetition.  Both remain loyal to their existing audience.  The audience for both is generational.

As for the The Times-Picayune newspaper they were forced into shutting down parts of the enterprise due to financial concerns brought about by change.  They were forced into this unplanned event based on financial drivers.

As for the ARRL, it seems to be a waiting game of how they deal technological change which makes Amateur Radio an interesting hobby in the context of our taken-for-granted always-on hyper global connectivity available to anyone with a smart phone  and the issue of their membership which shows a clear generational preference.

This is from ARRL CEO David Summer K1ZZ posted on the ARRL website:

Mr. Sumner reported on his research into “state of the art” strategic planning by large membership associations. Perhaps because of the negative impact of the financial upheavals of 2008 and the revolution in electronic publishing, at this time there appears to be no consensus among associations as to the value of strategic planning or the best way for associations to go about it. The ARRL Board last updated the organization’s strategic plan in 2009 and normally would conduct an in-depth review three to five years later. The committee discussed the perceived shortcomings of past strategic planning efforts along with possible improvements. Without taking a formal decision the committee concluded that while strategic planning remains important to the ARRL, planning for a successful Centennial celebration in 2014 is the current priority. A fresh approach to strategic planning should be taken immediately afterward.

In 2014 the ARRL will celebrate its 100th anniversary.  One would wonder if the ARRL  Centennial celebration – its current organizational priority – is primarily a look back or a look forward.  If it’s a look forward then can the ARRL afford a delay in the Strategic Plan that sets its course for the future in the context of its membership which is in a generational bubble and modern taken-for-granted hyper-connectivity global communications technology available to anyone with a smart phone – not just those with an Amateur Radio license.

“at this time there appears to be no consensus among associations as to the value of strategic planning or the best way for associations to go about it“… is that what happened to the newspaper business in general and The Times-Picayune in particular?

Read more…

NASA: What to do after Mission Accomplished?

Amateur Radio: National Traffic System (NTS) – When all else fails. Or, When Twitter is down!

There are a lot of people who read this blog that know nothing about Amateur Radio. Perhaps some of you are wondering about the doomsday scenario – no doubt to befall us at the end of the Mayan calendar in December 2012. Or perhaps it’s a lesser event, such as a hurricane or some other disaster.

No more global communication for you…

So what do you do when your smartphone is down? You know, that global communication device in your pocket. If you lose that no more texting, no more twittering, you can’t send a photograph, you won’t know your GPS location, you won’t be able to stream a movie. If you lose the capability of that smartphone device you won’t be able to pay for the mocha latte at Starbucks. If you lose the capability of that device you won’t be able to have a video chat with aunt Mary to see if she is OK. Forget the face-time video, you won’t even be able to talk to her.  Given this new situation, you won’t be able to update your Facebook status and alert your friends of your situation.  Surely,  in the context of our always-connected digital life, the world has ended.

In short, your global communication device and all the infrastructure that has to be working to support it – is gone.  What now?

Amateur Radio National Traffic System

Never fear. Amateur Radio has something called the National Traffic System (NTS). In brief (there are a lot of links to detailed info below) Amateur Radio operators, using a network of point to point private radio systems will get your all important message to just about anywhere in the world.

The NTS  is “idling” when not in use for the Mayan end of the world or a local or national disaster. Amateur Radio operators are sending self-generated messages to constantly ensure that the network of volunteer operators, the network, and the radio equipment is up and working.

How it works…

The Wikipedia has a somewhat colorful example of how the Amateur Radio National Traffic System works. Here it is:

This process is best explained by an example. Let’s say that someone in Minnesota wants to send a birthday greeting to Aunt Mary in California. They telephone their local ham friend and give him the message.

At 6:30 local time, the Minnesota ham attends (“checks in to”) the Minnesota Section net. One station there has been designated to accept all outgoing messages, and Aunt Mary’s message is sent to that station.
At 7:45, the station who received the message checks in to the Region net. This net consists of representatives from all the section nets in the region, and one station has been designated to accept all traffic that flows out of the region. Aunt Mary’s greeting will be sent to this station.
At 8:30, the station from the region checks into the Area net and sends Aunt Mary’s greeting to the designated representative from the Pacific area.
At 8:30 Pacific Time, the Pacific Area net meets. (All the area nets meet at 8:30 local time; since they are in different time zones there is no overlap.) At this point the process is repeated in the opposite order
The area representative sends the message to the appropriate region representative,
The region representative meets a later session of the region net and sends the message to the appropriate section representative,
The section representative meets a later section net and sends the message to the closest operator to Aunt Mary’s home
The final recipient calls Aunt Mary on the telephone and delivers the greeting.

Perhaps this sounds rather complex, but it really isn’t. Each net uses the same procedure and operating techniques, so as novice operators gain experience they can “graduate” from section to region to area nets. Every message is placed into the same format. The operation is disciplined but not unduly complex.

The NTS uses a variety of modes of Amateur Radio communication to transmit your message. Of special interest is the Brass Pounders. These are folks, that, with a bit of nostalgia, use Morse code and (brass) telegraph keys to transmit the message.

Try it for yourself…

You, the private citizen might want to try this NTS system out by contacting a local amateur radio operator and having them send a “Radiogram”.

What says “Happy Birthday” to Aunt Mary better than a Radiogram sent through the Amateur Radio National Traffic System and perhaps handled by a Brass Pounder? That, for sure, beats an e-Card from Hallmark or even a talking birthday card sent through the postal mail.

Read (lots) more

You can find out what the NTS is all about in this presentation.

https://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/nts_101.pdf

Below are lots of references where you can read more about the NTS

http://www.hudson.arrl.org/eny/NTS/index.html

http://www.arrl.org/chapter-one-national-traffic-system

http://www.arrl.org/nts-manual/

http://www.w7arc.com/nts/

http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Public%20Service/radiogram2.pdf

http://www.dmoz.org/Recreation/Radio/Amateur/Organizations/National_Traffic_System/

http://www.arrl.org/nts

What is the government doing to ensure survivability of communications – Presidential Executive Order

http://www.federalnewsradio.com/519/2933910/Obama-assigns-new-responsibilities-for-keeping-government-connected-in-case-of-emergency

When all else fails

Part of the relevancy of Amateur Radio in the 21st Century is the idea that “When all else fails” Amateur Radio will be there.

From the ARRL

Despite the complexity of modern commercial communications – or perhaps BECAUSE they are so complex – Amateur Radio operators are regularly called upon to provide communications when other systems are down or overloaded.

You can check out what the ARRL has to say here:

http://www.arrl.org/emergency-radio-org

https://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/whenallelsefails.pdf

What is the “else” in…When all else fails?

Did you ever wonder what has to fail? Curiosity led me to find the Statewide Communications Interoperability Plan for my state – Illinois

Here is the scope of that plan

The Statewide Communications Interoperability Plan, or SCIP, serves as the operational blueprint for the conceptualization, procurement, implementation, and usage of interoperable communications by Illinois’ public safety agencies and non- governmental/private organizations. The development of the SCIP was a cooperative effort by a consortium of federal, state, and local public safety practitioners working through the Illinois Terrorism Task Force’s Communications Committee and the Statewide Interoperability Executive Committee. Annual reviews/updates to the SCIP will be conducted under the auspices of the Illinois Emergency Management Agency.

The SCIP is much more than a user’s guide to radio communications. The plan outlines Illinois’ interoperability vision, its mission, and the goals, objectives, and strategic initiatives that will be employed to achieve that vision. It establishes standard operating procedures that will be followed by public safety practitioners when responding to disasters or significant incidents and underscores Illinois’ adherence to the tenets of the National Incident Management System. The plan sets forth the methodology that will be used to assess Illinois’ current interoperable capabilities, defines the governance role of the Statewide Interoperability Executive Committee, and details funding strategies to achieve Illinois’ interoperability vision.,, Most importantly, however, the SCIP demonstrates Illinois’ uncompromising commitment to bring communications interoperability to all of its governmental/non- governmental public safety agencies.

It’s a fascinating read.  In this plan you will find tons of frequencies providing the opportunity to “listen in” on drills and actual emergency communications

https://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/ill_statewidecommunicationsinteropplan.pdf  (link)

The Bigger Picture

The bigger picture, for Illinois, is located here

Illinois Emergency Management Agency
http://www.state.il.us/iema/

Disaster Preparedness, Response & Recovery
http://www.state.il.us/iema/disaster/disaster.htm

And then there is FEMA.

Check out the National Response Framework
http://www.fema.gov/emergency/nrf/

FEMA offers more than 100 training courses on-line for free
http://training.fema.gov/IS/crslist.asp

So how does all this fit in with Amateur Radio?

Read the Public Service Communications Manual from the ARRL
http://www.arrl.org/public-service-communications-manual

Here are some resources from an Illinois ARES group
http://dupageares.org/illinoisraces.html

Mystery Projects – FEMA/DHS AM backup transmitters

And finally, this  article from the Radio Engineering Blog

What is the deal with those FEMA/DHS AM backup transmitters?

Back last February, it was reported that FEMA/Department of Homeland Security was mysteriously constructing prepackaged AM transmitter buildings at various PEP (Primary Entry Point) transmitter sites across the country as something call “Primary Entry Point Expansion.” These buildings contain a 5 KW Nautel AM transmitter, EAS gear, satellite equipment (the exact equipment list is undisclosed) and a backup generator all in a shielded (Faraday Cage), prefabricated building placed inside of a fenced in compound at the station’s transmitter site. The buildings are being put in place, but not connected to anything in the outside world. They are planning to have about 80 (the number keeps increasing) of these structures in place when the project is completed by mid 2013.

Read the entire posting here –
http://www.engineeringradio.us/blog/2011/10/what-is-the-deal-with-those-fema-dhs-am-backup-transmitters/

The Take

If all the above is the “else” … and  “If all else fails” I’m not sure I want to be around. Or perhaps, if all else fails, none of us may have a choice to be around or not.

Read a related article on this site –
https://frrl.wordpress.com/2011/01/23/amateur-radio-when-all-else-fails/

700,000 Amateur Radio Operators in the US? Perhaps the real number is 157,000

700,000 Licensed Amateur Radio Operators… ??

So, at the start of 2012 there are supposedly 700,000 licensed Amateur Radio operators in the United States. Let’s ask some questions…  Is this more or less than in previous years?  What are the historical trends over the past decade? Over that past few decades?  How do certain events affect the number of licensed operators?  What about dropping the code requirement in 2007 – what measurable effect did that have?  What about other countries – Australia, Germany, Japan, and so on.  How large is the population of Amateur Radio operators in those countries and how do those numbers and trends compare with the United States?

If you are a stakeholder with the ARRL then you can ask even more questions… What are the trends in the ARRL sections and ARRL divisions?  How well do the ARRL membership numbers track the growth or decline of licensed amateur radio operators in the US?  What percent of the amateur radio operator population does the ARRL capture as members?  Can you measure the success of the ARRL by comparing the number of members against the number of licensed amateur radio operators in the US?

What other questions can you ask and answer if you had a load of historical amateur radio licensing data and some good statistical analysis?

Tons of Amateur Radio license data at your fingertips

There’s an informative website that provides detailed statistical analysis of Amateur Radio licenses

http://ah0a.org/FCC/index.html

Some of the ready-made reports are:

• Australian Amateur Statistics (thru 30 June 2010)
• German Amateur Radio Statistics (thru 31 December 2008)
• Japanese Amateur Statistics (thru 31 March 2009)
• Spanish Amateur Statistics (thru 31 December 2008)
• U.K. Amateur Statistics (thru 31 March 2009)
• U.S. Amateur Statistics (thru 16 January 2012)
• U.S. Amateur Radio Licensing Trends
• Average Life Table
• US Totals

For US Amateur Radio, you can drill down into ARRL Divisions and Sections

• Geographical Charts: Aug 1999 → Jun-2011
• ARRL Divisions Map
• ARRL Sections Map
• States Map

So, if you want the skinny on the statistics of Amateur Radio licensing sliced and diced in all sorts of ways plus the capability of doing you own data mining and reporting then the site URL above is for you.

Discovery, Insight, and Decision making – Turning data into information

Having the raw  data on licensing along with the statistical analysis might give insight into answering some interesting questions and pose some new questions.  It’s all about discovery and turning raw numbers (data) into information that can inform decisions and provide insights.

700,000 Licensed Amateur Radio Operators – What does it really signify?

As of the beginning of 2012 there were 700,000 licensed Amateur Radio operators in the US. An amateur radio license is good for 10 years before expires.  If the license is not renewed then your are off the list and are not counted in the 700,000.

But this number of 700,000 may be misleading depending on what you think it signifies.  This number does not represent the number of active amateur radio operators – and it’s the active people that matter- not the inactive.  Many people may have gotten a license for the Amateur Radio service, gave Amateur Radio a run around the block, and then lost interest after a short period of time.

This loss of interest, the fact that they have no intention to renew the license, and the 10 year longevity of the license means that this 700,000 number,  if taken to represent that number of people active in Amateur Radio, would be misleading.

The 700,000 number really does not mean a lot if the majority of them have lost interest. It may be of benefit to some to quote large numbers – 700,000 in this case – to try to make a case for significance.  But when it comes to “boots on the ground”, “showing up”, and “making a difference” it’s only the active people that count.

So, if the number is not 700,000 (a best case high-water mark) then what is it?

The ARRL as the only (national) game in town

One clue on how to find the number of active Amateurs in the US might be to look at the membership of the ARRL. The ARRL is the American Radio Relay League. The ARRL is the “only game in town” as a national organization incorporated as a 501 C(3) charity that is dedicated exclusively to the advancement of Amateur Radio.

According to the ARRL’s strategic plan its mission is:

To promote and advance the art, science and enjoyment of Amateur Radio.

And the ARRL has a Big Hairy Audacious Goal:

Amateur Radio will be recognized as a valuable, innovative, technical and public service avocation.

The ARRL, as a national organization, is the public face of Amateur Radio in the United States.  This is the value proposition from the 2006 Strategic Plan:

• Develop strategic alliances, coalitions, and relationships with a varied of public, private, and not-for-profit organizations to advance Amateur Radio.
• Maintain personalized relationships with key, government decision- makers and agencies at the national, state and local level.
• Build a strong strategic position and wide recognition as the credible source of Amateur Radio information.
• Develop positions on key issues of interests and importance to members and the Amateur Radio community.
• Become branded for being a powerful advocate and voice for Amateur Radio.

You can read more about the ARRL on their web site: http://arrl.org

So, of the 700,000 licensed Amateur Radio operators can we get a clue as to the number of active licensee’s from additional statistics based on ARRL membership? Since the ARRL is the only (national) game in town then the hypothesis is that active hams gravitate to the ARRL – there is seemingly little other choice in the United States.

ARRL Membership Statistics

The ARRL publishes membership statistics in its Annual Reports.  These Annual Reports are available on their web site back to 2002.  So, based on the number of licensed operators in the US (from the first web site mentioned above) and the membership of the ARRL (as reported in their Annual Reports) perhaps we can combine the two sets of data and mine some interesting information and ask some new questions.

Here are our current questions

1. How many of the 700,000 license amateur radio operators are actually active?
2. Does the membership numbers of the ARRL give us an insight into the true number of active amateur radio operators?

Here is the analysis based on the data provided on the web site above and data gleaned from the ARRL Annual Reports.

Resources for learning about electronics

Folks learning about electronics on their own might want to check out this great site.

You’ll find theory, practice, experiments, video’s, and a very active discussion forum

http://www.allaboutcircuits.com/

Folks interested in Radio might want to check this specific link inside the site above (Radio and Communications)

http://forum.allaboutcircuits.com/showthread.php?t=22011

Pedagogy: Learning – and failing to learn – about Electronics

I always like this quote from major league baseball player and manager Yogi Berra –

“You can see a lot just by observing.”

Many people say the world isn’t  interesting.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  The world is full of interesting things – if you just take the time to look.

For some, electronics is a hobby.  For these folks, they are not professionals; they do not have four-year college degrees in electronics or electrical engineering.  They just want to learn about electronics as a hobby.  Over the years I’ve watched individuals (including myself) learn about electronics as a hobby.  Generally, they try to do it on their own, outside a classroom setting – flying by the seat of their pants.

How do the variety of individual go about learning about electronics?  Here is where I appeal to Yogi Berra – “You can see a lot just by observing.”

By careful unscientific and ad hoc observation, this is what I’ve observed over the years regarding people trying to learn about electronics outside a traditional classroom setting.

1. Lost-in-time Thomas Edison approach.  Thomas Edison said, “Success is 10 percent inspiration and 90 percent perspiration.”  For this set of individuals, learning about electronics is more about doing rather than thinking.  They have the “lets see what happens” approach.  They try one thing then another thing and observe the results.  This is what Thomas Edison did when he was trying to find what would work as a filament in a light bulb.  From Edison, “Before I got through, I tested no fewer than 6,000 vegetable growths, and ransacked the world for the most suitable filament material.”

I call this approach by those trying to learn electronics as the “Lost-in-time” Thomas Edison approach because, 100+ years later, electronics is a mature disciple.  At the level of pedagogy, there is no real need to “experiment” at a very basic level,  For example, if you want to learn how to bias a transistor for a simple class A audio amplifier do you really want to just try combinations of resistors until it works?  How many combinations will you try?  “Before I got through, I tested no fewer than 6,000…”

The C-word: Consensus

How many times have you heard the C-word – you know, Consensus?

In a corporate environment you hear that this or that team or committee will meet to reach a consensus on this or that topic or decision. Is consensus-building always a good paradigm for decision-making?

I remember a quote by Margret Thatcher, former Prime Minister of the UK…

Consensus is the absence of leadership

What is the case against consensus decision-making?

The case goes like this… If teams are assembled to plan initiatives, agree on direction, and agree on the means of achieving goals they will act together to take the hill.  But perhaps, maybe, the opposite occurs.

Once a corporate culture rewards consensus building then the majority of people in the company or on a team recognize that the straightest path to success in that organization is to conform to prevailing views or conventional wisdom as opposed to challenging them.  And the prevailing views may be those foisted on the team or company by the obsolete  icons of the past, the loudest people in the room, the team bully, or the worst case the cadre of corporate sociopaths ( read about the 1 in 25 here)

Does it does matter who is right? Or has the truth or can demonstrate its veracity?  Do you just “agree with the majority” – even though you disagree – just to “get along” and conform to the corporate policy of “consensus decision-making”?

Anyone who has seen the classic movie “Twelve Angry Men” from 1957 knows what I mean

In that movie,

12 Angry Men explores many techniques of consensus-building, and the difficulties encountered in the process, among a group of men whose range of personalities adds intensity and conflict… The jury of 12 retires to the jury room, where they spend a short while getting acquainted before they are called to order. It is immediately apparent that they have already found the defendant guilty and intend to return their verdict to the court without taking time for discussion–with the sole exception of Juror number 8 (Henry Fonda). His is the only “not guilty” in a preliminary vote.

The jurors get to the jury room, its hot and muggy, and they all have other things to do later that day. The initial consensus is that the guy is guilty.  They vote and there is one hold out of “not guilty” – that’s juror number 8 – played by Henry Fonda.  As the movie progresses, Juror number 8 fights the consensus of the other 11 jurors and eventually wins them over through careful analysis and challenges to already held beliefs about the situation of the case.

Consensus Decision-making is really a pact

Radio Society of Great Britain – Survey

Stumbled upon this 2011 survey done by RSGB

Very interesting profile of Amateur Radio operators in GB

The beef – https://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/questionnaire-analysis-advisory-group-radcom.pdf

The site – http://www.rsgb.org/survey/

Get a free issue of RSGB’s monthly magazine – http://www.rsgb.org/sampleRadCom/view/

What the heck is Amateur Radio? – http://www.rsgb.org/newcomers/

Google Message Relay – The penultimate resource of last resort

Google’s announcement comes as Egypt’s last standing ISP is disabled. Noor Group, a DSL provider, managed to remain online last week as the Egyptian government ordered ISPs to pull the plug. Unfortunately, Noor’s traffic appears to have trickled to a halt. “As of approximately 20:46 UTC, Noor is no longer reachable from outside of Egypt,” reported Renesys, an Internet monitoring firm.

Read a related article: Amateur Radio – When all else fails
Get on the air in your community – The Local Community Radio Act 2011

We are very dependent on the Internet for just about everything.  What happens when a government pulls the plug on their country’s Internet connections effectively disconnecting their citizens from the outside world?

It’s interesting that Amateur Radio has positioned itself as the communication resource of last resort.  It could be that Google is the penultimate communication resource of last resort – at least for the current situation in Egypt.

If we do get to Amateur Radio as truly the communication of last resort for an entire country I wonder what the world would look like in that scenario.

Read the article from Reuters…

(Reuters) – Google Inc launched a special service to allow people in Egypt to send Twitter messages by dialing a phone number and leaving a voicemail, as Internet access remains cut off in the country amid anti-government protests.

“Like many people we’ve been glued to the news unfolding in Egypt and thinking of what we could do to help people on the ground,” read a post on Google’s official corporate blog on Monday.

The service, which Google said was developed with engineers from Twitter, allows people to dial a telephone number and leave a voicemail. The voicemail is automatically translated into an audio file message that is sent on Twitter using the identifying tag #egypt, Google said.

Google said in the blog post, titled “Some weekend work that will (hopefully) enable more Egyptians to be heard,” that no Internet connection is needed to use the service.

It listed three phone numbers for people to call to use the service.

Internet social networking services like Twitter and Facebook have been important tools of communications for protesters in Egypt who have taken to the streets since last week to demonstrate against the 30-year rule of President Hosni Mubarak.

Internet service has been suspended around the country and phone text messaging has been disabled.

A source familiar with the matter said Google, whose corporate motto is “Don’t Be Evil,” was not taking sides in the crisis in Egypt, but was simply supporting access to information as it has done with other services such as video website YouTube.

YouTube has been streaming live coverage of Al Jazeera’s broadcasts of the events in Egypt.

Dozens of the so-called speak-to-tweet messages were featured on Twitter on Monday. The messages ranged from a few seconds to several minutes and featured people identifying themselves as Egyptians and describing the situations in various parts of the country.

“The government is spreading rumors of fear and of burglary and of violence,” said one of the messages from an English speaker. “The only incidence of theft and burglary are done by the police themselves.”

Google listed the following numbers for people to use the service: +16504194196 or +390662207294 or +97316199855.

Take a video tour of the ARRL Lab

Ever read those product reviews and tests in QST Magazine that were done in the ARRL lab?  Well, here is where it happens.  Take a look.

Nothing interesting to listen to on Amateur Radio

Listen to the Liberty Net – Live and On-Demand

I can agree with the sentiment below – so many amateur radio conversations are vacuous.   How about taking it up a notch and get amateurs into the national conversation on topics of the day? 

A past president of the ARRL said that a renewed focus on Technology will reawaken the relevance of Amateur Radio.  Will it?  Or will this just drive Amateur Radio into a smaller and smaller niche market on the margins of society?  

Would Amateur Radio be more relevant if it hitched its wagon to the national conversation where “everyone” can participate?  Check out the Liberty net.  Not an Amateur? –  you can listen to archived nets on-line at the links below.  Are you a shortwave listener with a radio capable of LSB/USB or a BFO?  Then blow the dust off that set and listen in real-time

SO MANY amateur contacts are empty and meaningless, an exchange of signal reports or technical descriptions of the most rudimentary sort. Such is seldom the case for the discussions that take place on or around 3950 kHz SSB during the weekly Liberty Net — a current events discussion net that has been meeting weekly since the 1970s.

Every Saturday night at 10:00 PM Eastern Time, the Liberty Net begins and usually runs until the wee hours of the morning. W1WCR, Victor Misek, is the Net Control Operator, and his commanding signal spans the continent and beyond with perfect intelligibility. In addition, Vic’s array of Beverage antennas (he is the author of the Beverage Antenna Handbook) allows him to receive signals through noise and interference that would stymie most operators, and relay important information to the rest of the net participants.

The Liberty Net is a formal current events discussion net, taking on political and social issues usually distorted or covered up by the controlled mass media, and has been in operation for four decades. Any amateur willing to follow net protocol is welcome to join. You need not agree with other participants. The only stations not welcome on the net are a few inveterate jammers who have made themselves obnoxious by purposely interfering with the frequency on numerous occasions.

The Liberty Net operates formally only on Saturday evenings, but on many evenings you will hear some of the Net participants engaging in informal, free-spirited, and free-thinking discussions of important issues on the frequency. When intentional interference is present, sometimes the participants shift to 3953, 3947, 3947.5, 3960, or other nearby frequencies.

Read more on the purpose of the net, summaries, and download archived discussions
http://3950.net/3950-and-the-liberty-net/
http://3950.net/

Amateur Radio folks and Legal Eagles…

…please see the extended response by Keith C Baker- KB1SF / VA3KSF

Amateur Radios Fall from Grace:the discussion in QRZ on licensing and testing

Video tour of the Antique Wireless Association Museum

The role played by the ARRL in Amateur Radio (1941)

From the 1941 Radio Amateur’s Handbook…
Read the Amateurs Code of Ethics and…
the Story of Amateur Radio – How it Started — and the role played by the ARRL

https://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/storyofamateurradio_partplayedbyarrl_1941.pdf

What’s the FCC up to now?

Forcing you out of your cricuit-switched landline to IP Telephony?

See the document – https://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/fcc_all_iptelephony_da-09-2517a1.pdf

Read an article – http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2009/12/fcc-plans-for-death-of-circuit-switched-phone-networks.ars

The state of the state of the ARRL – by Glen, K9STH

A well considered opinion on the state of the ARRL posted to QRZ

cached copy

http://forums.qrz.com/showthread.php?t=165815&page=2

The ARRL Strategic Plan

Have you ever looked at the ARRL Strategic Plan?  Looks like ARRL will be updating this in July 2009.

How does the ARRL Strategic Plan stack up with other Strategic Plans for Profit and not-for-profit corporations?  Watch for a future posting once ARRL puts some meat in this plan after their meeting.

For now…. ( http://www.arrl.org/news/features/2009/03/01/10584/ )

In July 2006 the Board devoted the second day of its meeting to a revision of the League’s Strategic Plan. The document was refined by the Executive Committee in October 2006 and adopted by mail vote of the Board later that month. The Board intends to conduct a top-to-bottom review of the Strategic Plan at its July 2009 meeting. As a part of the process leading up to that review, the Board would like to hear from you. You are invited to share your thoughts on the future direction and priorities of your national association. For more background on the strategic planning process, see the September 2008 QST editorial and March 2009 QST editorial.

ARRL Strategic Plan

Amateur Radios Fall from Grace: the discussion in QRZ on licensing and testing

The Great Debate in QRZ

There is a very interesting debate going on in the http://qrz.com  open discussion forums about amateur radio licensing and testing.

http://forums.qrz.com/showthread.php?t=207949

The discussion was initiated by Charles Young, KY5U.  Charles posted a presentation from the Arizona Section of the ARRL concerning a strategy for passing the Amateur Radio exams.  Anything out of the ordinary, or unexpected, gets attention.  So perhaps this advice from this ARRL section was unexpected:

From a 2008 study slide presentation by an Arizona ARRL Asst. Section Manager:

Study ONLY The Test, Learn The Rest of HAM Radio LATER !
Study ONLY the CORRECT answers. Don’t try to learn the theory.
MINIMIZE The Things You Need To Learn…………MEMORIZE.

http://www.qrz.com/HowToPassExams2008.pdf (Page 5)

At the time of this writing there are over 600 replies to this posting.

With 600+ responses, I skimmed many of them.  I found this exchange interesting.

What’s new at Dayton 2009

Did you miss any of the new ham radio equipment introduced at Dayton 2009?
If so, Joel R. Hallas, W1ZR, put a PDF together for you

What’s new at Dayton 2009

Advice from another VE, Briggs Longbothum, AB2NJ

On how to pass the Amateur Radio exams

Join the club…

One more thing: Keep in mind that this study method is designed to teach you how to pass the exam only. Whether or not you learn anything is up to you.

Get yourself a fresh, unmarked, and printed copy of the question pool for the written test elements you need. You can print this off the internet or go buy a study guide that contains the current question pool. You can easily find such guides at Radio Shack or you can order from the ARRL, Gordon West, etc.

Make sure you have the appropriate correct answer list too.

FIRST: Read the very first question, think and understand precisely what it is that the question asks for
SECOND: Look up the correct answer letter (a, b, c, or d) and put a check mark next to that answer amongst the other choices.
THIRD: Read that correct answer and ONLY THAT CORRECT ANSWER!
DO NOT EVER, EVER, EVER, READ AN INCORRECT ANSWER!
FOURTH: It is so important and critical to your success that it bears repeating
DO NOT EVER, EVER, EVER, READ AN INCORRECT ANSWER!
FIFTH: Do the same thing with the second question and so on until you have read all of the questions in the entire pool and designated their correct answers.

Read the entire study guide –https://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/hamteststudyguide.pdf

Did anyone ever use this technique to get a college degree?  Or, perhaps a high school diploma?

How much oversight does the ARRL exercise over its ARRL Sections?

While reading the open forums on http://qrz.com I came across a thread that would cause one to stop and think about the future of Amateur Radio.  ( http://forums.qrz.com/showthread.php?t=207949 )

KY5U posted this in the Talk and Opinions forum

ARRL Official says memorize only the answers

---

From a 2008 study slide presentation by an Arizona ARRL Asst. Section Manager:Study ONLY The Test, Learn The Rest of HAM Radio LATER !
Study ONLY the CORRECT answers. Don’t try to learn the theory.
MINIMIZE The Things You Need To Learn…………MEMORIZE.

http://www.qrz.com/HowToPassExams2008.pdf (Page 5)

__________________
KY5U

This is what is on the title page of the presentation

Presented By:
Rick Paquette W7RAP
ARRL Assistant Section Manager (AZ)
ARRL VE Liaison

Asking the significant questions

There are two questions that come to mind.

1. How much oversight does the ARRL exercise over the ARRL Sections?
2. Are we heading toward a decline in competency of Amateur Radio operators?

The Concept and Strategy for Licensing

Lets step back a a bit and review “incentive licensing”.

Good Advice from the AZ ARRL Section

Don’t learn the theory – study only the answers.

I found this on qrz.com and could not pass its up.

Some helpful advice from the ARRL Assistant Section Manager.
(From page 5 of the presentation included below)

Study ONLY The Test, Learn The Rest of HAM Radio LATER !
Study ONLY the CORRECT answers. Don’t try to learn the theory.
MINIMIZE The Things You Need To Learn…………MEMORIZE.
FOCUS ONLY On The Test Material. Avoid other Books, Magazines etc.

Presented By:
Rick Paquette W7RAP
ARRL Assistant Section Manager (AZ)
ARRL VE Liaison
https://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/howtopassexams2008.pdf

The Fifth Pillar of Amateur Radio: hiding in plain sight

“On Saturday, May 17 at the Dayton Hamvention, ARRL President Joel Harrison, W5ZN, plans to announce that the League will expand its identity program to include greater emphasis on technology. Harrison explained that “Ham radio operators, and particularly ARRL members, closely identify with current and emerging radio technology.

Today, we are naming ‘technology’ as ARRL’s new fifth pillar.” ARRL’s other four pillars, the underpinnings of the organization, are Public Service, Advocacy, Education and Membership.

“For hams, expanding the four pillars to include technology will reinforce one of the organization’s guiding principles — that ham radio is state-of-the-art, innovative and relevant,” he said.” – The ARRL Letter Vol. 27, No. 19 May 16, 2008

Here comes everybody – http://eham.net

The ARRL (American Radio Relay League), and Amateur Radio by collateral damage, took a beating in http://eham.net on the above release from the ARRL  You can read the comments for yourself.

ARRL President Joel Harrison, W5ZN, tipped his hand (revealed a secret) when he made the statement “that ham radio is state-of-the-art, innovative and relevant”.  Of course, as observed by one writer in http://eham.net, if one has to publicly assert that amateur radio is relevant, state-of-the art, and innovative – then there exists an underlying perception to the contrary.

At least the threat of irrelevancy would be credible enough that it would motivate an organization to make such a statement.  What’s more, if an organization takes an action to mitigate what they say is not true in the first place then this demonstrates that the threat of irrelevancy is credible in their assessment.

Relevancy is only part of the solution

Tour of the W1AW Hiram Percy Maxim Memorial Station

W1AW, the Hiram Percy Maxim Memorial Station, is a living memorial to the “Father of Organized Amateur Radio”, located at ARRL Headquarters in Newington CT. When visiting ARRL HQ, most amateurs choose W1AW as the place to see where Amateur Radio comes alive.

Can’t visit ARRL Headquarters yourself?  Then watch the video tour compliments of Randy K7AGE

Read an article on W1AW and see some pictures – http://www.arrl.org/news/features/2001/08/07/1/

How the RELAY got into the ARRL

Note: You might want to read the historical content in our posting Amateur Radio Beginnings before you read this posting.  This posting picks up where that article left off on Amateur Radios beginnings in the early 1900’s.

The perception and image of Amateur Radio in early 1900’s

The reputation of Amateur Radio up to the 1920’s was not good.  Companies such as General Electric, Westinghouse, and Western Electric opposed Amateur Radio.  Private Citizens and commercial radio stations opposed Amateur Radio due to interference.  The Navy, at one time or another, campaigned against Amateur Radio.  Maritime companies lobbied against Amateur Radio being charged with interference with safe and consistent communication.  This is not to say that other groups and private citizens did not support Amateur Radio.

The point to be made is that significant powerful companies and parts of the government had no compelling positive image of Amateurs.  The Radio Act of 1912 restricted Amateur use of the RF spectrum and Amateurs were seen as hobbyists, experimenters, and folks that generally caused interference to other services.  There was no generally understood positive compelling image of Amateur Radio.

The need for a new Vision and access to legislation

What Amateur Radio needed was someone to champion the cause of Amateur Radio and create a better image of Amateurs.  What was also needed was a organization to bind all the Amateurs together.  Binding people together creates a synergy of collaboration and provides the possibility for a collective mission and purpose.