Archive for December 2011
Every 60 seconds on the Internet & seeing around corners
There are three kinds of death in this world. There’s heart death, there’s brain death, and there’s being off the network – Guy Almes
The graphic above has been posted to many sites.
As interesting as this is, what would be more interesting if we knew the growth rate of these things. The above is a snapshot in time – from about June of 2011. But, as a snapshot in time, it’s already obsolete. If we could only have a sort of “flip-book” of these graphics and see the changes in the Internet over time. If we did, then that would only be a view of the past – what good is that? Can we infer the future from the past?
Did the post office think they would have a linear future? How about booksellers, video stores, travel agents, newspapers, or the 100 or so other industries that found their business model disrupted by changes in technology and culture? The age of long-term strategic planning is gone – the future is discontinuous, emergent, and non linear. Those who will be successful will need to see around corners.
What about global communications? How has this changed and who could have predicted it? In 60 seconds on the Internet …
- Facebook – 695,000 status updates, 79,364 wall posts and 510,040 comments are published
- E-mail – 168,000,000+ emails are sent
- Twitter – 320 new accounts and 98,000 tweets are generated
- Tumblr – 20,000 new posts are published on the micro-blogging platform Tumblr
- LinkedIn – 100 accounts are created on professional networking site LinkedIn
- Skype – 370,000+ minutes of voice calls done by Skype users
Alvin Toffler got it right
The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn – Alvin Toffler
View a related post – http://frrl.wordpress.com/2011/01/23/amateur-radio-when-all-else-fails/
Social media demographics – http://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/socialmediademographics.jpg
Amateur Radio – Reality Check from the Wife
I snagged this on YouTube
Geez
The above video was created by K6FRC. Web site – http://k6frc.com/
This must be a tolerant wife (cache web site pages) – http://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/wa6mhz.pdf
Conversational Challenges
Read a related article - How to be (are you) a good listener
Did you ever encounter someone who couldn’t have a conversation? Did you ever encounter the opposite – someone who couldn’t stop talking? Between these two extremes there must be some middle ground, techniques, and operational rules for having a good conversation.
Who better to consult than Scott Adams of Dilbert fame? Adams has written a couple of blog entries on conversation and listening. You can find the links to these blog posts at the end of this posting.
Adams has come up with a pretty simple definition of a good conversation
The objective of conversation is to entertain or inform the other person while not using up all of the talking time. A big part of how you entertain another person is by listening and giving your attention. Ideally, your own enjoyment from conversation comes from the other person doing his or her job of being interesting. If you are entertaining yourself at the other person’s expense, you’re doing it wrong.
Adams goes on to say that, by his observation, only 25% of the population has this understanding of a good conversation.
The Challenge
Some people put up a pretty good challenge to having a good conversation. Here are some miscreants I’ve observed:
- Topic Hijackers. These are people who join an existing conversation and hijack it to talk about what they want to talk about without a natural transition. In a well-ordered conversation one topic generally and naturally leads to another in its own time – it’s the natural flow of a conversation. Topic Hijackers steal the conversation and are generally not good listeners – or, don’t want to listen.
- Mad Tea Party. Named after the ride at Disney Land in the context of the stated “infamy” of the ride. Spinning tea cups on a turntable. These are people who enter a conversation and change the topic and direction after almost every exchange. This generally creates conversational nausea. Changing the topic of conversation may cause the experience of dizziness, loss of balance, and motion sickness. Perhaps changing topics at such a rapid rate is a sign of lack of depth of knowledge on any topic. Or perhaps the lack of the ability to sustain attention, direction, or focus on a single topic for any sustained period of time. (ADD)
- Conversation as self-entertainment and/or self-indulgence. These are generally people who talk mostly about themselves. According to Adams, if the point of the conversation is self-entertainment then you are doing it wrong (If you are entertaining yourself at the other person’s expense, you’re doing it wrong.) This could also be related to “conversational narcissism“.
- Failure to merge. Think of an on-ramp to a highway. You want to enter the highway. Done properly, while on the on-ramp you gauge the speed of the traffic on the highway, adjust your speed to match the traffic, and merge seamlessly into the existing traffic flow. If other cars have to speed up or slow down then you’ve done it wrong. Same with conversations and new people entering the discussion. Understand the flow and cadence of a conversation and merge seamlessly. Some people don’t know how to do this and they create a conversational car wreck with other participants.
- Conversation as monologue. People who are not capable of “chunking” a conversation. Sure, you have a lot to say but give the other person a chance to respond without them having to interrupt you. Conversation is give and take – in short intervals. If you are talking for more than about 15 seconds at a time without giving the other person a chance to respond then you are nearing monologue mode. If you are talking too much you are probably not listening enough.
In reading the Adams blog entries I encountered the mention of Asperger Syndrome - which I had to look up. Folks with Asperger Syndrome have trouble understanding the subtleties of human social interaction – despite a high IQ. From the Wikipedia:
The most distinguishing symptom of AS [ Asperger Syndrome ] is a child’s obsessive interest in a single object or topic to the exclusion of any other. Some children with AS have become experts on vacuum cleaners, makes and models of cars, even objects as odd as deep fat fryers. Children with AS want to know everything about their topic of interest and their conversations with others will be about little else. Their expertise, high level of vocabulary, and formal speech patterns make them seem like little professors.
Children with AS will gather enormous amounts of factual information about their favorite subject and will talk incessantly about it, but the conversation may seem like a random collection of facts or statistics, with no point or conclusion.Unlike the severe withdrawal from the rest of the world that is characteristic of autism, children with AS are isolated because of their poor social skills and narrow interests. In fact, they may approach other people, but make normal conversation impossible by inappropriate or eccentric behavior, or by wanting only to talk about their singular interest.
Do children with AS get better? What happens when they become adults?|
With effective treatment, children with AS can learn to cope with their disabilities, but they may still find social situations and personal relationships challenging. Many adults with AS are able to work successfully in mainstream jobs, although they may continue to need encouragement and moral support to maintain an independent life.
So lets add these to the list of conversational challenges
- Single Topic conversations. These are people, that no matter how the conversation starts out, will find a way to drive the conversation back to their favorite topic. They seem to have few other conversational options. They may have a narrow set of interests; experts in one field but lack breadth of knowledge or general knowledge that would position them to have a conversation with an ordinary citizen. How many of these folks might be adults with AS?
- No topic conversations. These are people who simply have nothing to talk about. Could also be a sign of the deeper problem of lacking social skills and techniques of social interaction and communication.
By far the most interesting to me are those people who have nothing to say. They have no opinion, no comments, and seemingly no ideas. How can this be? Sometimes I can jump-start the conversation by asking them what they do for a living (people like to talk about themselves). If I get them talking about what they do then maybe I can find a thread to expand the conversation. Sometimes, if I keep feeding them topics they will respond; but only in short pithy sentences. If I stop feeding them questions and they stop talking. These people never get going - give them a little “push-start”, expect them to get going, but they never do. Perhaps these people are still trying to find their passion. Left to their own devices, without the conversational jump-start, the silence is deafening.
The only way out of these conversational challenges is to try to actively manage the conversation. Some people have very little self-awareness that they are committing the conversational sins suggested above. Tread carefully in helping them come to a self-awareness and what a conversation could be in the best of all possible worlds.
But, bottom line. Success, in any endeavor, requires good communication skills. Check out this article on How to Master the Art of Conversation.
Perhaps those who have nothing to say are your best opportunity to practice your conversational craft. And, while practicing your craft you have the opportunity to help someone else become a better conversationalist… speaker and listener … which they can then pass on to others… and so on, and so on…
References
Conversation on the Scott Adams Blog – http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/conversation/
Active Listening – http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/active_listening/
More on the Art of Conversation – from the Art of Manliness website
http://artofmanliness.com/2010/09/24/the-art-of-conversation/
http://artofmanliness.com/2011/05/01/the-art-of-conversation-how-to-avoid-conversational-narcissism/
Perhaps it’s time for you to retire – “without cause”
It’s always interesting to watch companies… what they do… and what they try to get away with… and what they hide… and what they disclose… and how they manage their image.
And in all of this, you as – shareholder, employee, stakeholder, or other interested party get to make an assessment of what the company thinks of you when they make public statements that affect your view of the company, its executives, and the company performance in general. Are they (the company PR) telling you the truth? Or, are they trying to cover something up?
You may or may not have a stake in the company. If not, then these events can be pure entertainment and, perhaps, an education for what to watch for in those companies or organizations in which you do have a stake.
So over the past few months we have come to the end of the calendar year. Christmas and the holidays is a nice time for senior executives to retire. Of course, upon the announcement of retirement, there will be a glowing and rosy statement of the senior executives accomplishments and achievements over the years the senior executive has been with the company.
But how many of these are voluntary retirements and how many of these are, what I will call, “retirements with cause” at the hands of corporate Board of Directors?
How can you determine if the “retirement” of a senior executive is voluntary or if s/he was “shown the door” by the Board?
Since when does taking vacation mean you don’t show up for work?
Christmas is this weekend. So this is a good time to watch employees differentiate themselves.
I had the opportunity this morning.
It’s an important project. We have contract deliverables due at the end of the calendar year and some are late.
We have a conference call each morning at 8:00am for a “plan of the day” to get this done.
Two people who were on vacation today did not show up on the call
One person who was on vacation did show up on the call
For the rest of the team this was a working day and they all showed up.
The person who was on vacation who did show up on the call is also on vacation all next week and will be traveling to her parents house for Christmas & New Years celebration. This individual has budgets to do which have to be completed by the end of the calendar year.
I asked her is she will complete them. She told me she is taking her laptop with her to her parents house and will complete them next week while on vacation and submit them by the end of the calendar year as promised.
What to learn
People have plenty of opportunities to differentiate themselves
- Committment to promises they make (commitments to themselves) - no matter what
- Committment to the team – They don’t let other team members down
- Committment to the project – The project has contractual obligations which have monetary penalties if not delivered on time.
- Committment to the company – The company’s brand is built on the quality of the projects it delivers
So, for the folks on vacation that could not phone in for a 30 minute conference call for an important project…
… I suppose that “vacation really does means vacation” – no matter what.
Sometimes it’s easy to pick the winners from the losers; the A-Players from the B and C-players…
… and who you would select for your next critical high-profile project.
People just somehow sort themselves out all by themselves.
All you need to do is watch and observe behavior at every opportunity that presents itself.
And those opportunities are plentiful.
On the assessment: “I did nothing wrong”
“The harm here is not measured in the value of property or money,” Judge James B. Zagel said before telling Mr. Blagojevich his fate. “The harm is the erosion of public trust in government.” – NY Times
A couple of days ago, former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich got 14 years in the slammer for corruption (read). For as long as he was on trial he maintained that he “did nothing wrong”.
A few weeks ago, former Philadelphia schools superintendent Arlene Ackerman filed for unemployment benefits after getting a nearly $1-million dollar buyout to get rid of her. (read). She was quoted saying, ”I did nothing wrong” (read)
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – Former Philadelphia schools superintendent Arlene Ackerman, who was given a nearly $1-million buyout earlier this year, has applied for unemployment.
School District spokesman Fernando Gallard today confirmed that Ackerman wants to collect state unemployment benefits.
“The former superintendent did apply for unemployment,” Gallard told KYW Newsradio today.
This comes after taxpayers funded a $905,000 buyout when she was shown the door in August (see related story).
As part of her separation agreement, the School Reform Commission agreed not to contest any unemployment claims she might file.
Then there was Mr. Flick. Mr. Flick, after winning $2 million in the lottery still uses food stamps at the tax payers expense. Did he do anything wrong? Can you embarrass him? Unlikely. From Mr. Flick: (read)
“If you’re going to … try to make me feel bad, you aren’t going to do it. It ain’t going to happen,” he said.
What about what’s happening in Bell City… Can these folks say, “I did nothing wrong?” (read)
But, the essence of the thing is that Bell City Manager, Robert Rizzo, was being paid a salary of $770,000 per year. Bell City is primarily a blue-collar town of about 40,000 people. A typical salary of a Bell City resident is about $28,000 per year. About 17% of the town lives in poverty.
The Bell City Council worked it out so that Rizzo would get a near 12% raise each year and they themselves – the City Council – paid themselves about $100,000 per year for part-time work.
Rizzo got fired. But that does not mean he will lose his pension of $709,607 per year. Depending on how long Rizzo lives, the total payout of pension benefits could be close to $30 million dollars. And that $30 million dollar pension for one person is on the backs of the taxpayers.
Blagojevich
So when Judge Zagel sentenced Rod to 14 years in the slammer the Judge made a few observation…
Zagel: “I can not comprehend that even if you are guilty, you don’t think you caused harm to Illinois.”
Zagel: “You did good work. But I’m more concerned when you wanted to do good only when it benefited yourself.”
Zagel: “Your personality may not be entirely suitable for public service.”
Zagel: “Blagojevich’s staff did not march him down this criminal path. He marched them.”
Will making tighter laws and rules solve the problem?
It seems that whenever something bad happens there are those who want to pass a law to prohibit this or that bad behavior. Rather than make more laws and rules perhaps we need better people in these pivotal decision-making roles. That is, people who can make better judgements. What is better? In the case of those in public office and those who make decisions for organizations and corporations one can ask, in whose benefit are decisions and judgements made? To the benefit of stakeholders (citizens or shareholders) or do people make decisions, as Judge Zagel says of Rod, “You did good work. But I’m more concerned when you wanted to do good only when it benefited yourself.”
The accounting equation that doing good makes up for doing bad…
There also seems to be another curious idea at work in some peoples minds. The idea that good and bad are entered into some kind of accounting equation. And, if the good things you do somehow have more value than the bad things you do then those bad things are ignored or erased. In some sense, do more good than bad and you will be forgiven for the evil that you do. When revenue matches expenses in a business you are at the breakeven point. But I’m not sure that in moral and ethical judgements this sort of accounting and balancing act works so well. But, some think that it does.
A Gift – The Ambiguity in rules and laws
There is not enough ink or paper or time to codify good behavior. No set of laws or rules can accommodate every situation. As such, you need people in political office and leading corporations who can make “good” judgements and have a solid track record of such judgements.
According to Dr. Martha Stout, a clinical psychologist, 1 in 25 people is a sociopath (read)
So, in a group of 100 people just who are the 4 people who are likely suffering from, what used to be referred to as, “Moral Imbecility“? Who are the 4 in the crowd of 100 that make decisions that could be considered what Judge Zagel observed of Rod as, “You did good work. But I’m more concerned when you wanted to do good only when it benefited yourself.” Who are the 4 that put their self-interest above all the rest? … and try to pass it off as something good for the company, organization, or the citizens?
It is a gift that rules and laws have a “space” that allows for one’s own conscience to make a decision on how to behave and tell right from wrong. Without this “space” it would be harder for ”us” to determine just who are the 4 people in the crowd of 100 that are the ruthless ones. (The Sociopath Next Door (paperback) by Dr. Strout)
Can you manufacture a “space” for individuals to reveal their character and judgement? That is just what the Tru TV Reality Show Bait Car does. This reality show creates a ready-made opportunity for an average citizen to make a judgement. Leave an unlocked car with keys in a conspicuous spot and watch individuals that see this car make a judgement of right and wrong. It’s a benefit to society to catch these folks using a staged “bait car” before they do the damage of theft to an ordinary citizen.
Do we need more laws and more rules to stop bad behavior? No. It’s impossible to codify it all.
The Take
Maybe all we need to do is pay closer attention to the “space” in existing rules and laws and let those who make judgements within this space take the bait and reveal their true character, motivations, and judgements.
Catch them in the small things – the small judgements and tiny decisions they make. Catch them early enough, take then out of play, and maybe this will lessen the damage they can do on the big things – to others, organizations, corporations, political office, and perhaps society in general.
Read a related article on this site about the principal-agent problem -
http://frrl.wordpress.com/2011/06/28/the-principal-agency-problem/
The Hidden Reality: Parallel Universes and the Deep Laws of the Cosmos
I told this story once before. Relevant to this posting, here it goes again. When I was in college I took a class on Mathematical Philosophy. On the first day of class I sat next to a woman who was an undergrad major in Philosophy. As part of exchanging basic introductions I told her I was majoring in Physics and Mathematics. When she heard I was studying Physics she asked me this question: “Why do you think that the World lends itself to mathematical formulation?”
I have never forgotten this question for these reasons:
First, in my naive way of thinking at the time, I did not think someone could ask such a question. Mathematics simply works. Using Mathematics one can make predictions about how the World works and verify these predictions experimentally. Even in Quantum Mechanics, the Schrodinger Equation makes a prediction about the probabilities of outcomes which experimental evidence has proven to be correct over and over. Some, like Einstein, would hold out for the “hidden variables” theory that mathematical models would predict exactly what would happen if we had a better model and more information. In this context Einstein made the famous statement, “God does not play dice with the Universe.“ Einstein could not accept that the way the world worked was based on probability.
Second, it taught me a lesson that I validated over and over again. The people that will make the most progress in any discipline are the people who can formulate the right questions. As sort of a corollary, I will always remember this: “Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen, and thinking what nobody has thought”. – Albert Szent-Gyorgi.
Some who write about the sad state of Physics education today point to the fact that academic institutions are turning out physicists who are more practitioners (technicians and engineers) than they are scientists that are adept at framing critical questions and seeing things in novel ways outside traditional paradigms of thought. Progress in Physics is often about shattering existing paradigms by framing the right (probing) questions and seeing things in novel ways. But we also need the people who can do the work to test the theories that Einstein, Hawking, and others push out using pencil, paper, and imagination.
If you are one of those who likes to ask hard questions about the nature of Reality from the perspective of modern physics you might want to check out this book by Brian Greene
The Hidden Reality: Parallel Universes and the Deep Laws of the Cosmos
I told the story above because Chapter 10 ( Universes, Computers, and Mathematical Reality) and Chapter 11 ( The Limits of Inquiry) in Greene’s book treats this issue of the role of mathematics in Physics. Not only that but these chapters also tie together several other interesting topics. For example: the ability of computers to simulate the physical laws of a Universe; the ability of computers to simulate sentient beings; and finally, whether the reality of the world is exactly the reality of mathematics. (Mathematical Realism)
It’s easy to tie in Ray Kurzweil’s The Singularity is Near which predicts a time when human beings, using technology, will transcend their biology by creating computers that can exceed the mental capacity of humans. As regards simulated Worlds, one only need to look at Second Life where an alternate reality is created by computers and humans animate avatars in this world. How far is the final step for Second Life? That final step being that sentient beings become part of the simulation and those sentient beings wonder about their world while “we” (their creators) look in on their world in sort of a God-like privileged position of creator of their Universe
Here is what Greene has to say about the Reality of Mathematics
For centuries, mathematicians and philosophers have wondered whether mathematics is discovered or invented. Are mathematical concepts and truths “out there,” waiting for an intrepid explorer to stumble upon them? …
