Archive for February 4th, 2011
Group Think: How to avoid common decision-making traps
I stumbled across a paper from the School of Advanced Military Studies entitled: Effects of Groupthink on Tactical Decision-Making. (You can find a link to this paper at the end of this posting)
The really cool thing about watching decision-making by all sorts of corporations, organization, teams, and groups is how easily they fall into common, well-known, and avoidable decision-making traps.
The second really cool thing is that few people learn from the past or study the past of flawed decision-making. For those who do learn from the past all they can do is stand back and watch the inevitable train wreck of yet another avoidable mistake.
To the point, here is a quote from Major Phillip M. Johnson – the author of this Monograph
This conclusion is based on a review of all Center for Army Lessons Learned (CALL) databases and published CTC trends and lessons learned periodicals (fiscal years 1995-1999). Only one reference about groupthink was found in CALL Newsletter 90-8, Winning in the Desert I: Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for the Maneuver Commander (pg 24). The publication gave the following advice to commanders: “Do not fall victim to ‘groupthink!’ Widespread agreement among the staff is not necessarily a healthy sign. It could mean that the desire to find agreement is overriding critical thinking…”
Being aware of flawed decision-making based on Group Think is pretty important when it comes to military decision-making – it literally is life and death of individuals from one to hundreds of thousands or more. There are case studies in the Monograph which show the effect of the Group Think flawed decision-making in global and tactical scenarios.
Birds of a feather flock together…
Like people associate with like people. This may be a psychological comforting thing (we can all agree with each other; we all think alike; there is no dissent) but this is exactly what leads to a certain “blindness” in optimal decision-making and critical thinking.
At the end of the monograph Major Phillip M. Johnson writes this:
In times of stress there will be a natural desire to reduce that stress by increasing group harmony and ignoring problems. Be alert for groupthink and when you suspect it is occurring, take a devil’s advocate position and actively find the flaws that everyone is missing.”
Cass Sunstein
“We’re from the government and we are here to help you..”. Read this posting for background. Cass Sunstein knows about Group Think and this is why in his book Nudge he advocates this – which, of course, most people don’t like.
Sunstein would impose mandatory “electronic sidewalks” on the internet. These “sidewalks” would display links to opposing viewpoints, a concept described as a “Fairness Doctrine for the Internet” by Adam Thierer, senior fellow and director of the Center for Digital Media Freedom at the Progress and Freedom Center. “Apparently in Sunstein’s world, people have many rights, but one of them, it seems, is not the right to be left alone or seek out the opinions one desires.”
“ it seems, is not the right to be left alone or seek out the opinions one desires..” On the road to Group Think? Would the Fairness Doctrine for the Internet help you or harm you? Psychological upsetting at the expense of better decision-making? What is more important?
Safe in their opinions… confirmation of beliefs already held…
Is it that people want to be safe in their opinions and therefore they listen only to people who express the same opinion as theirs? Why do people listen to Rush Limbaugh? To confirm beliefs already held? People like Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck are “one-man Group Thinks” influencing millions of people into a Group Think replete with “Mind-Guards” who protect the group from adverse information and demonize people who do not share their views (see below) . What about the larger stage of politics? What about the Group Think of Nazism? How could it happen? Group Think works so well that those inside can’t recognize, what might be called, “cultural insanity” by those who are outside the Group Think.
State Controlled Media
Group Think is also somewhat related to state controlled media. You only get to hear one side. Do you remember Baghdad Bob from the Gulf War? As the american coalition tanks were rolling in, Baghdad Bob said the american were not in Baghdad (quotes). At the time of this writing there are riots in Egypt. State controlled media has ejected all the foreign journalists and the cameras. What remains is a single camera and a state controlled news person telling the tale from the ruling powers perspective ( read more ). This is also how those in power can also influence elections ( read more )
Symptoms of Group Think
In all the cases above what attributes of Group Think could apply … (Overestimation of the Group) Illusion of Invulnerability, Belief in the Inherent Morality of the Group, ( Closed-Mindedness) Collective Rationalization, Stereotypes of Out-Groups, (Pressure Toward Conformity) Self-Censorship, Illusion of Unanimity, Direct Pressures on Dissenters, and Self-Appointed Mind-Guards to protect the group from adverse information that could threaten the group’s shared complacency and to keep others in line with the supposed consensus.
