Archive for June 2009
SWAY: The irresistible pull of irrational behavior
SWAY: The irresistible pull of irrational behavior
The Twenty Dollar Bill Auction
Related article:
How to Auction off an Ordinary Twenty Dollar Bill for Fun and Profit
If you auctioned off a twenty dollar bill as I suggested – then good for you. If you didn’t there is still time. Do this with your friends. This auction will elicit behavior and provide an insight into your friends personality that you can’t get any other way with such clarity.
The twenty dollar bill auction is cited in the book:
SWAY: the irresistible pull of irrational behavior by Ori Brrafman & Rom Brafman
According to the authors, the auction originates in a negotiations class at Harvard Business School.
The Three Phases of Bidding
According to the analysis there are three phases of the auction
1. The $2 phase. In this phase there is a good deal of optimism as the bidders see a real bargain. When the bidding starts at $2 for a twenty dollar bill, this looks like a great deal. This is the start of the entrapment into the momentum and logic of the auction.
2. The $12-$16 phase. This is where the bidders get an idea of where this auction is heading. This is also where a consideration of loss sets in. If one bidder bids $16 and another bids $17 then the $16 bidder has to bid $18 in order not to lose $16. If the $16 bidder does not bid $18 then the $16 bidder will look like a sucker for paying $16 for nothing (see the bidding rules in our previous posting).
3. The $20+ phase. At this phase it’s all about loss. No matter who wins the bid for the $20 bill both the highest bidder and the second highest bidder will suffer a loss. The contest is now about the reduction of loss. As time goes on for the two bidders, it is no longer about winning – it’s about continuing your bidding to reduce the loss which only gets bigger and bigger as time goes on.
Irrational behavior – The convergence of loss aversion and commitment
There are two forces that feed off each other when the bidding gets over $20. First, is a commitment not to lose and second is the momentum of what is going on.
The two forces, in turn, feed off each other: commitment to a chosen path inspires additional bids, driving the price up, making the potential loss loom even larger.
Of course, the rational action to take when the bidding gets to the $12-$16 level is to accept you losses and exit. But this is generally not what happens when the auction is carried out. Ori and Rom Brafman use this latter case as an example of irrational behavior.
In the book SWAY, the Twenty Dollar Auction is used to explain two historical events. The first is the action of President Lyndon B Johnson and the Vietnam War and the second is George W Bush and the War in Iraq.
But in just a few years later LBJ was already deep into the third stage of the auction. With more than 500,000 troops on the ground in 1968 and tens of thousands dead, LBJ was long past the $20 mark. He lamented, “Light at the end of the tunnel, hell, we don’t even have a tunnel; we don’t know where the tunnel is.”… the president was getting beat but could not bring himself to change course.
In the end, Johnson lost more than Vietnam. The war cost him the full realization of the Great Society, his approval ratings, and ultimately – when he decided not to run for another presidential term – his political career.
LBJ and Bush share this combination of commitment, and unusual optimism is the face of tremendous loss.
Both presidents showed strong commitment and resolve to stay the course. LBJ stated “We will not be defeated. We will not grow tired. We will not withdraw, either openly or under a cloak of a meaningless agreement.” President Bush asserted, “We will not fail. We will persevere and defeat this enemy and hold hard-won ground for the realm of liberty.”
Conclusion
At a micro level the Twenty Dollar Auction is a fun game to play. At a macro level, the Twenty Dollar Bill Auction played at the level of international politics affects millions of people. But at both levels, whether you are just a regular person or the President of the United States people are swayed into irrational behavior. That is the point of book by Ori Brafman and Ron Brafman.
Someplace in the middle of individuals and international politics companies and organizations are swayed into irrational behavior at the convergence of the momentum of what is going on and the ever growing commitment not to lose despite the evidence that the loss continues to grow. The game is changed from a game played to win to a game played not to lose amid a sort of delusion of optimism – staying the course no matter what the loss. Watch this blog for some examples of how this irrational behavior is played out in organizations.
Here is yet another pitch, try the twenty dollar auction with your friends. At the $12-$16 point, you might know more about the psychology of your friends than they know about themselves.
References:
SWAY: the irresistible pull of irrational behavior by Ori Brrafman & Rom Brafman
How to Auction off an Ordinary Twenty Dollar Bill for Fun and Profit
How much oversight does the ARRL exercise over its ARRL Sections?
How much oversight does the ARRL exercise over its ARRL Sections?
While reading the open forums on http://qrz.com I came across a thread that would cause one to stop and think about the future of Amateur Radio. ( http://forums.qrz.com/showthread.php?t=207949 )
KY5U posted this in the Talk and Opinions forum
ARRL Official says memorize only the answers
From a 2008 study slide presentation by an Arizona ARRL Asst. Section Manager:Study ONLY The Test, Learn The Rest of HAM Radio LATER !
Study ONLY the CORRECT answers. Don’t try to learn the theory.
MINIMIZE The Things You Need To Learn…………MEMORIZE.__________________
KY5U
This is what is on the title page of the presentation
Presented By:
Rick Paquette W7RAP
ARRL Assistant Section Manager (AZ)
ARRL VE Liaison
Asking the significant questions
There are two questions that come to mind.
- How much oversight does the ARRL exercise over the ARRL Sections?
- Are we heading toward a decline in competency of Amateur Radio operators?
The Concept and Strategy for Licensing
Lets step back a a bit and review “incentive licensing”.
The basis of the structure of amateur radio licensing is incentive licensing. FCC Amateur Radio licensing is arranged into classes. At one time, five classes – Novice, Technician, General, Advanced, and Extra.
Theoretically, one advances from Novice to Extra by increased knowledge and competency as demonstrated by testing. The more you know the “higher” the license class, and the “higher” the license class, then the more privileges you get.
The incentive licensing system is a win-win system. The more you know that can demonstrated on a test then the more privileges you get from the FCC. Good for you, good for the ARRL, and good for Amateur Radio that it has knowledgeable, capable, and competent operators based on this system of classes and testing.
How much oversight by the national ARRL?
In the presentation cited above, the Arizona ARRL Section sets out a strategy for passing the Amateur Radio licensing exams. The recommended strategy by this ARRL Section effectively says (my interpretation) “Here is how to pass the test, forget the theory, just memorize one answer – the right answer”.
This effectively subverts the incentive licensing strategy. As intended, the tests administered by Volunteer Examiners (VE) was to test knowledge and competency in Amateur Radio and its associated technology and operating procedures.
Demonstrate you know the material by passing the test and you get a FCC Amateur Radio license appropriate to that level of competency. Learn more, become more competent, more proficient, and more knowledgeable, take another test to demonstrate this and you get a more a more advanced license and more operating privileges.
But the folks in the Arizona ARRL Section says… no, forget all that. We will give you all the answers to the test, you memorize only the correct answer to each question, take the test and you can pass.
Study ONLY The Test, Learn The Rest of HAM Radio LATER !
Study ONLY the CORRECT answers. Don’t try to learn the theory.
MINIMIZE The Things You Need To Learn…………MEMORIZE.
On seeing this, I wonder how much oversight the National ARRL has on the operation of its sections? What does the National ARRL do when one of its sections is recommending something that is diametrically opposed to the general understanding of licensing as understood by the national ARRL?
Certainly, if asked, the official position of the National ARRL would not be in alignment with any ARRL section presenting the strategy above for passing the FCC licensing exams.
ARRL Hands Off?
So, is it “hands off” by the national ARRL? In business, and I know this is not business, it’s all about alignment of business units and divisions to the corporate strategy.
So, for the national ARRL, why would they not want want the same? – a consistent message by the ARRL cascaded down to the ARRL Sections. Without this there is ambiguity and confusion about what the real goal of testing is all about.
In 2008 ARRL President Joel Harrison, W5ZN made “Technology” the Fifth Pillar of Amateur Radio.
How does the strategy of test taking by the ARRL Section mentioned above align with this?
A decline in Competency of Amateur Radio Operators
In the general culture I see a tendency toward less and less competency and a trajectory toward finding some way around a competency obstacle. A sort of obsession with vanity titles – as if “Extra Class” would mean something if the way you got Extra was by passing licensing tests by memorizing answers as the AZ ARRL Section recommends.
The movie “Idiocracy”
I am not a fan of the movie “Idiocracy” – but it does follow through on a simple premise. What if the culture lost its desire to learn, read books, understand history, and become competent?
This is from a review of Idiocray in Slate.com that makes the point
Idiocracy challenges a central article of faith in American life, the notion that we are destined for moral, material, and intellectual progress. And what if things really are getting worse? What if, more to the point, we really are getting dumber? Recently there’s been some troubling evidence that the arrow of intelligence is pointing downward.
A British study found that the intelligence of British 11-year-olds has actually declined during the last 20 years. Data from the Danish draft board indicate that intelligence peaked in the late-1990s and has now fallen to levels not seen since 1991, when MC Hammer-inspired parachute pants were all the rage. If that’s not enough to make you slit your wrists, I don’t know what is…
If you’re alarmed by the callousness and the crassness of our culture, which you certainly should be, do something about it. Lead or follow. Getting out of the way is not an option.
So how much is the Arizona ARRL Section on this path? And, most importantly, “is getting out of the way” of the ARRL Arizona Section an option for the national ARRL?
What is the national ARRL doing to ensure the integrity of its ARRL Sections and to ensure alignment of a consistent message and understanding of Amateur Radio to both Amateur Radio operators and to segments of the general public that would want to become Amateur Radio operators?
If the national ARRL will not do it then who? Who is the national advocate of Amateur Radio that will ensure the integrity of the Amateur Radio Service when such a basic mis-alignment is discovered?
At this level of misalignment one can see an every increasing number of appliance operators lacking the technical competence and radio theory traditionally associated with Amateur Radio.
And the beauty (or disappointment) of it all is that it’s happening in the ARRL itself in the same year an ARRL President announces that the Fifth Pillar of Amateur Radio is a focus on Technology.
Resources
ARRL Arizona Section – http://www.arrl.org/sections/AZ.html
Slate Article on Idiocracy – http://www.slate.com/id/2150627/
Arizona ARRL Section recommendations on how to pass the Amatuer Radio license exams -
http://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/howtopassexams2008.pdf
How to Auction off an Ordinary Twenty Dollar Bill for Fun and Profit
How to Auction off an Ordinary Twenty Dollar Bill
for Fun and Profit
It’s June 2009 and in the Midwest of the United States where this blog is being written it’s time for patio parties, picnic’s, pool parties, barbecues, and a lot of other outdoor activities.
If you have a nice friendly neighborhood party on the deck or patio with a fire pit going, you might want to try this… well… sort of… party game
It’s really not a game at all – it’s some serious business as you will discover. You could make some money, get entertained, and learn something about human behavior all at the same time. What a deal.
Auction off a twenty dollar bill
Why not auction off a twenty dollar bill at your party?
Pull a twenty dollar bill out of your pocket.
Auction it off according to these simple rules
- Bids are in one dollar increments
- Highest bidder wins
- The second-place bidder has to pay his/her bid and get nothing.
“You can observe a lot by watching ” – Yogi Berra
This is no ordinary auction. I am not going to tell you what might happen. It is highly likely that you are going to make a profit on this auction.
This is really a game of strategy, negotiation, commitment, and loss aversion.
Give it a try. What you learn from observing the behavior during this auction is going to give you some insight into the thinking and behavior of your friends and neighbors that you probably could not get any other way.
Warning – you might see some very bizarre behavior during this auction.
Think through what might happen. At the time of this writing, the highest documented bid for an ordinary twenty dollar bill was $204.
What can you learn from this acution? Stay tuned for an upcoming posting on this site and watch how it can be applied to organizational behavior. Best if you try this acution for yourself in advance – before we post the analysis and how it can be observed in an organizational context.
Small Transmitting Loop Tuners from MFJ
Small Transmitting Loop Tuners from MFJ
This is from the “I’m not paying attention department”. When I wrote the article on the AES IsoLoop I didn’t know that MFJ Enterprises has a wide selection of small transmitting loop antenna tuners.
The biggest challenge in building the small transmitting loop is not the wire loop – it’s getting the tuning capacitor. The images I posted in the AEA Isoloop article showing homebrew loops showed that most of the capacitors used in those homebrew loops were “ham fest specials” or from the junk box.
MFJ Enterprises solves the problem of getting the capacitor for your loop antenna. They have an number of loop tuners from $160 to $260.
The $160 model covers 160m to 10m and handles 50 watts. The $260 model which also covers 160m to 10m can handle 300 Watts and has a built-in SWR Meter as well as loop current meter. I don’t know what significant parts are inside the $160 model other than the tuning capacitor but $160 seems like a lot of money for a box with a capacitor and a few other parts and no tuning indicator (loop current meter).
I can’t remember exactly how much I paid for the AES Isoloop. It was about $329. So. for another $70 or so what I got in addition to the (expensive) tuning capacitor is the stepper motor which allows remote tuning. Why remote tuning? Watch out for the RF!
RF Exposure in Loop Tuning
An issue with the MFJ small transmitting loop tuners is that you have to be literally 1-2 feet or less from the loop while tuning if you use it in their preferred configuration.
For these tuners, the expectation is that you mount the frame for the loop directly on the top of the tuner. If you inspect the images for these loops you will see a fitting on the top to receive a PVC pipe that is the loop framework.
Being this close to a loop antenna to perform the tuning can be dangerous.
The MFJ manuals for these loop tuners do in fact start out warning you about RF radiation hazards and they include a handy table. Be aware that at 100+ Watts into a loop at resonance can generate 10’s of thousands of volts in near proximity to the loop.
If you look at some of the resources I posted with the article on the AEA Isoloop you will see a fluorescent light glow a few feet from a transmitting loop in operation.
So, a few advantages of the stepper motor approach to loop tuning are:
- No need to be in close proximity of the loop while tuning – keeps you away from the RF.
- Remote operation - you can place the loop where you want it rather than in a place of close physical access. The AEA IsoLoop came with a 50 ft control cable.
- Precision tuning. I don’t own any of the MFJ loop tuners but my experience with the AES IsoLoop is that the Q is so high on this tuned resonance circuit that even the smallest change in capacitance is going to produce a large affect.
This is not to discourage you from the MFJ loop tuners. The principle is that same, but you can see the value of the stepper motor tuning approach – and the added expense to realize this value.
Sizing the Loop
The MFJ manual for these small transmitting loop antennas have some valuable information on the size of the loop you will need for a particular band. Using the software in the references in the posting in the AES Isoloop you can theoretically calculate the loop sizes. Starting from that point, you can easily experiment based on actual measurements of SWR, loop current, and reception reports.
Here are the loop size tables from MFJ to give you an idea of loop sizes.
Single Band Loop Lengths
Multi-Band Loop Lengths
Technical information in the MFJ Manuals
I suggest that you take a read on the MFJ-936B manual for the technical information that it has on small transmitting loops and how to use the their tuner in actual practice.
Here are a few paragraphs
A small loop antenna is one that is characterized by low-noise reception, works
well even when mounted at ground level, and has a conductor length or
circumference of less than 1/3 wavelength. The ideal small transmitting antenna
would have performance equal to a large antenna, and a small loop antenna
approaches that performance. Bandwidth is quite narrow due to the extreme hi-
Q of the tuned-circuit configuration when paired with a capacitor.The components in a resonated transmitting loop are subjected to high currents
and voltages because of the large circulating currents found in the high-Q tuned
circuit formed by the antenna. It is very important that capacitors used in this
antenna have a high RF current rating. Even a 100-W transmitter develops
currents in the tens of amperes, and voltages across the tuning capacitor in
excess of 10,000 V. This consideration also applies to any conductors used to
connect the loop to the capacitor. A piece of #14 wire may have more resistance
than the entire loop conductor! The best electrical connections possible, are
those using soldered or welded joints.The heart of the MFJ-935B Loop Tuner TM is the “Butterfly” loop-tuning capacitor,
which has no rotating contacts. When coupled to a low-resistance loop
conductor, such as a copper strap, it provides a high efficiency-transmitting loop.
As the loop antenna is elevated, its efficiency improves accordingly. When
traveling, a room at some elevation above ground level makes for a better
portable operation experience with the MFJ-935B Loop Tuner TM. At very low
heights, close coupling to the ground causes detuning and losses due to current
induced into a mirror image of the loop below the surface with resistance of the
image loop proportional to soil resistance. Another loss component is due to
current flowing in the soil via capacitance between the loop and soil surface.
An operational height equal to 1/2 diameter of the loop antenna is recommended
to prevent detuning and excess ground losses when using the MFJ-935B Loop
Tuner TM loop antenna system. This means the tuner should be at that
recommended height, since it is connected to the bottom (ends) of the loop,
whatever the loop antenna configuration: Circle, Square, Hexagonal, etc.For operation on the 14 MHz band and higher, ground losses are a minimum
near ground, so it is fine to operate on the ground floor. For the 7 MHz band and
lower, ground losses become significant on the ground floor. To reduce ground
losses, operate on a second or third floor.For minimum ground loss when operating near ground, the loop should be
mounted vertically. For higher elevations (relative to the wavelength), horizontal
mounting will also give low ground losses.
Conclusion
As most folks know, there is a ton of activity on 20 meters morning, noon, and night – as long as the propagation gods are with you. According to MFJ, ground losses working the 20 band and above are minimal even at ground level. So even if you don’t have a tower, or roof mounted antenna, you can work these bands from a near ground floor location. In addition, no radials, counterpoise, other such “image” is needed for a loop.
The recommended size of the loop you will need, based on the table provided by MFJ, is only 7 feet for 20 meters and 4 feet for 17,15, and 10 meters. So that’s 2 feet on a side or less to work all these bands. Everyone should have enough space to set that up – even in a condo or apartment.
MFJ will also sell you the PVC to frame your loop – but you can get that from you local home improvement store. So, all in all, MFJ will meet you half-way or all the way with the full loop setup or just the tuner.
I have had a lot of fun with my AEA Isoloop that I bought a decade ago. With the MFJ small transmitting loop tuners starting at $160 and some cheap PVC pipe and wire – you are on your way.
Loop antennas would also make a good field day antenna or emergency preparadness antenna since its so easy to set up an very portable.
Resources
Images
